554 
FXUS64 KMAF 041111
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites. Predominately NW/N winds today will become gusty
this morning at every TAF site before dying down this afternoon. A
wind shift to light E/SE winds will occur this evening. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Despite the warmer temperatures the past couple of days, some of
the snowpack received in last week's storm is still hanging 
around, especially across portions of the eastern and southern 
Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, the higher terrain south of I-10,
and portions of the Big Bend Area. A weak cold front will drop 
south through the region today, resulting in a brief period of 
breezy northerly to northeasterly winds around mid-morning, with 
winds becoming lighter and gradually veering around to the east by
this evening. Cold air advection isn't very strong with this 
front, thus temperatures today will only be a few degrees cooler 
than yesterday, with lingering snowcover across the aforementioned 
areas keeping temperatures there in the lower to middle 50s, 
rather than the lower 60s that are expected for most other 
locations. 

By Tuesday morning, southerly surface flow will have returned to
the  region, resulting in a warmup for Tuesday as weak ridging 
overhead transitions to zonal flow during the afternoon ahead of 
the next trough that will impact the region Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will top out in the 60s for most of the 
area, with a few locations across the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys
inching toward highs around 70 degrees. While the aforementioned 
trough is progged to dig southward as it moves out of the Rockies 
and into the Plains Tuesday night, the strongest gradient 
associated with the trough still looks to remain north of the 
area, precluding significant wind concerns. In the wake of this 
trough, highs Wednesday will trend cooler, with 50s expected for 
most of the region and 60s mainly confined to the Rio Grande 
Valley and portions of the Big Bend Area. Persistent northwesterly
flow aloft through the end of the week will keep temperatures in 
check, with highs Friday only expected to top out in the upper 40s
and 50s for most of the area as surface high pressure develops 
across the Plains toward the Middle Mississippi Valley, yielding 
easterly surface flow across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. 

Next weekend, another trough/low pressure system will take aim on 
the region, with latest guidance indicating the trough dropping 
southeastward out of the Great Basin across the Four Corners, then 
swinging across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle Saturday into 
Sunday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this next system, 
as well as any associated precipitation chances. However, at this 
time, have maintained below normal temperatures next weekend, with 
the best chance for precipitation across portions of SE New Mexico 
and the Permian Basin Saturday night into Sunday. Have kept it 
simple with a rain/snow mix at this time, though changes in the 
intensity and path of this system could change the forecast 
significantly between now and then. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  31  61  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       65  29  67  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         67  37  63  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  60  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 58  38  60  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          62  29  63  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          60  25  63  29 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           61  33  62  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         61  33  63  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           65  30  65  34 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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