554 FXUS64 KMAF 041111 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 511 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 .DISCUSSION... Please see 12z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. Predominately NW/N winds today will become gusty this morning at every TAF site before dying down this afternoon. A wind shift to light E/SE winds will occur this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... Despite the warmer temperatures the past couple of days, some of the snowpack received in last week's storm is still hanging around, especially across portions of the eastern and southern Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, the higher terrain south of I-10, and portions of the Big Bend Area. A weak cold front will drop south through the region today, resulting in a brief period of breezy northerly to northeasterly winds around mid-morning, with winds becoming lighter and gradually veering around to the east by this evening. Cold air advection isn't very strong with this front, thus temperatures today will only be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with lingering snowcover across the aforementioned areas keeping temperatures there in the lower to middle 50s, rather than the lower 60s that are expected for most other locations. By Tuesday morning, southerly surface flow will have returned to the region, resulting in a warmup for Tuesday as weak ridging overhead transitions to zonal flow during the afternoon ahead of the next trough that will impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will top out in the 60s for most of the area, with a few locations across the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys inching toward highs around 70 degrees. While the aforementioned trough is progged to dig southward as it moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains Tuesday night, the strongest gradient associated with the trough still looks to remain north of the area, precluding significant wind concerns. In the wake of this trough, highs Wednesday will trend cooler, with 50s expected for most of the region and 60s mainly confined to the Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Big Bend Area. Persistent northwesterly flow aloft through the end of the week will keep temperatures in check, with highs Friday only expected to top out in the upper 40s and 50s for most of the area as surface high pressure develops across the Plains toward the Middle Mississippi Valley, yielding easterly surface flow across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Next weekend, another trough/low pressure system will take aim on the region, with latest guidance indicating the trough dropping southeastward out of the Great Basin across the Four Corners, then swinging across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle Saturday into Sunday. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this next system, as well as any associated precipitation chances. However, at this time, have maintained below normal temperatures next weekend, with the best chance for precipitation across portions of SE New Mexico and the Permian Basin Saturday night into Sunday. Have kept it simple with a rain/snow mix at this time, though changes in the intensity and path of this system could change the forecast significantly between now and then. Stay tuned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 65 29 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 67 37 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 60 34 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 58 38 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 62 29 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 60 25 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 61 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 61 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 65 30 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 88/84