634 
FXUS64 KLIX 022006
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
206 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper impulse that was over Oklahoma this morning is lifting into
Missouri as the next one is dropping southeastward through the
Rockies. Mid level cloud cover is exiting to the east quickly out
of the coastal waters and Jackson County Mississippi. Cold air
stratocumulus was slow in arriving this morning, but is now
covering about the northwest third of the area. Temperatures are
struggling to get out of the 40s under these clouds, while
temperatures across the remainder of the area are generally in the
mid and upper 50s. Dew points ranging from the upper 30s northwest
to the mid 40s southeast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (through Tuesday)...

Missouri shortwave will be in New England by tomorrow afternoon,
while Rockies shortwave will be near Nashville on Monday and off
the Carolina coast by Tuesday. Once we get rid of the cold air
clouds this evening, it's going to be tough to scare up much more
than mid or high clouds through Tuesday with precipitable water 
values near 0.40 inch on forecast soundings. If those clouds
impact any areas, it would be mainly northern sections. Only 
adjustments made at all to temperatures was to bump blended 
temperatures down a couple degrees (which might not be enough) 
for lows tomorrow night in the normally colder portions of the 
Pascagoula and Pearl River drainages where prime radiating 
conditions would dictate that adjustment. 

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday and beyond)...

Next system drops out of the Rockies into Oklahoma on
Wednesday/Wednesday night, then shifts eastward to the Carolina
coast by next Saturday. Any impacts with this system look to occur
Wednesday night. Moisture availability appears to be a signficant
problem with this system with precipitable water values only 
briefly reaching around an inch overnight Wednesday night. Not 
even much of a suggestion of thunder. For now, blended solutions 
carrying PoPs below 50 percent for most of the area. Wouldn't be 
surprised to see these get bumped up a little in later forecasts, 
as operational GFS/ECMWF PoPs are as high as 60-70, but allowing 
for differences in timing, can certainly accept current numbers.

Current blended solution favors GFS temperature solution for 
Wednesday, with Thursday through Saturday numbers not exhibiting a
significant spread for now. Have not departed from current
solutions. 

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings (around FL025) moved into KBTR/KMCB during the late
morning, about 6 hours slower than anticipated. KHDC also has 
picked up on those clouds since the 18z issuance, but only had 
brief ceilings. Can't rule out remaining terminals seeing brief
MVFR ceilings over the next few hours, until the Missouri shortwave
pulls the moisture away from the area a little more. Beyond that,
expect VFR conditions to be predominant for the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...

Brief surge of cooler, drier air could bring Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions (15-20 knots) to the eastern open waters, as
well as Breton/Chandeleur Sounds overnight before winds ease.
Beyond that, conditions should be pretty quiet until after the
Wednesday night/Thursday shortwave passage, which is right at the
end of the marine forecast period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  33  59  37  66 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  34  60  39  66 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  36  60  36  64 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  41  58  42  66 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  38  59  39  63 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  36  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$