634 FXUS64 KLIX 022006 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 206 PM CST Sat Jan 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Upper impulse that was over Oklahoma this morning is lifting into Missouri as the next one is dropping southeastward through the Rockies. Mid level cloud cover is exiting to the east quickly out of the coastal waters and Jackson County Mississippi. Cold air stratocumulus was slow in arriving this morning, but is now covering about the northwest third of the area. Temperatures are struggling to get out of the 40s under these clouds, while temperatures across the remainder of the area are generally in the mid and upper 50s. Dew points ranging from the upper 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. && .SHORT TERM (through Tuesday)... Missouri shortwave will be in New England by tomorrow afternoon, while Rockies shortwave will be near Nashville on Monday and off the Carolina coast by Tuesday. Once we get rid of the cold air clouds this evening, it's going to be tough to scare up much more than mid or high clouds through Tuesday with precipitable water values near 0.40 inch on forecast soundings. If those clouds impact any areas, it would be mainly northern sections. Only adjustments made at all to temperatures was to bump blended temperatures down a couple degrees (which might not be enough) for lows tomorrow night in the normally colder portions of the Pascagoula and Pearl River drainages where prime radiating conditions would dictate that adjustment. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday and beyond)... Next system drops out of the Rockies into Oklahoma on Wednesday/Wednesday night, then shifts eastward to the Carolina coast by next Saturday. Any impacts with this system look to occur Wednesday night. Moisture availability appears to be a signficant problem with this system with precipitable water values only briefly reaching around an inch overnight Wednesday night. Not even much of a suggestion of thunder. For now, blended solutions carrying PoPs below 50 percent for most of the area. Wouldn't be surprised to see these get bumped up a little in later forecasts, as operational GFS/ECMWF PoPs are as high as 60-70, but allowing for differences in timing, can certainly accept current numbers. Current blended solution favors GFS temperature solution for Wednesday, with Thursday through Saturday numbers not exhibiting a significant spread for now. Have not departed from current solutions. && .AVIATION... MVFR ceilings (around FL025) moved into KBTR/KMCB during the late morning, about 6 hours slower than anticipated. KHDC also has picked up on those clouds since the 18z issuance, but only had brief ceilings. Can't rule out remaining terminals seeing brief MVFR ceilings over the next few hours, until the Missouri shortwave pulls the moisture away from the area a little more. Beyond that, expect VFR conditions to be predominant for the forecast period. && .MARINE... Brief surge of cooler, drier air could bring Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions (15-20 knots) to the eastern open waters, as well as Breton/Chandeleur Sounds overnight before winds ease. Beyond that, conditions should be pretty quiet until after the Wednesday night/Thursday shortwave passage, which is right at the end of the marine forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 33 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 34 60 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 36 60 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 41 58 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 38 59 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 36 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$