163 
FXUS64 KMOB 012142
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...A potent mid level low 
pressure system continues to lift toward the MO/IL border early this 
afternoon, while another was moving across northern Mexico and far 
west Texas. The region of deeply moist southwest flow aloft has 
mostly shifted to the east of our region early this afternoon, 
though a few lingering light rain showers may still skirt locations 
southeast of a Florala to Destin line for the next couple of hours. 

The vigorous system over the Upper Midwest will continue to lift 
northeastward toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region tonight, 
while the next trough over far west Texas moves northeastward toward 
north Texas and Oklahoma. A southwest flow pattern aloft will 
persist across the north central Gulf Coast region ahead of these 
features through Saturday. Short range guidance continues to show 
another shortwave impulse embedded within southwest flow aloft 
lifting northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico late tonight into 
Saturday. A weak front will move across our area tonight before 
becoming stationary from the central Gulf and northeastward through 
the Florida Big Bend region and into southeastern Georgia late 
tonight into Saturday. A zone of ascent and increasing deep layer 
moisture ahead of the shortwave trough will allow for increasing 
coverage of rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms along the 
frontal zone later tonight and especially into the day Saturday. The 
latest guidance indicates that rain chances will remain focused 
offshore over our Gulf marine zones through late tonight. Partly to 
mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the lower to mid 40s 
across southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama and from 
around 50 degrees to the mid 50s across the rest of the region. Rain 
chances will be on the increase across the western Florida panhandle 
and portions of south central and southwest Alabama during the day 
Saturday. Likely POPs (>60% chance) have been indicated generally 
southeast of a Florala to Navarre line by Saturday afternoon, with 
slight to chance POPs indicated as far northwest as near the I-65 
corridor. Dry conditions are currently anticipated across the rest 
of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi Saturday. Our 
forecast area remains relatively cool in the upper 50s to mid 60s 
with no instability indicated, so no severe weather is anticipated. 

The latest guidance and beach observations indicate that surf 
heights should range between 4-7 feet along our local beaches 
through the rest of the afternoon. A High Surf Advisory is in effect 
for the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches through the 
remainder of the afternoon. Surf should continue to decrease 
tonight. A HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents along local beaches 
through late tonight. /21

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Tranquil
weather resumes as a broad, ejecting upper level trough shifts
northeast Saturday night into Sunday, giving way to strong
southwesterly flow aloft. Another weak shortwave sharpens some as
it progresses across the central U.S., becoming more diffuse and
broad as it pushes across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic
states Monday into Monday night. At the surface, rain east of I-65 
associated with a developing area of low pressure over the
southeastern U.S. comes to an end Saturday night. This gives way
to high pressure building into the area through Monday night,
continuing into the extended period. Cold air advection (CAA)
ongoing throughout the column will dry out the atmosphere,
reducing PWATs to generally 0.3" to 0.4". Given this along with 
weak jet dynamics with the trough pushing through Sunday, expect 
little more than few to scattered clouds over the region, clearing
out completely for Monday. Temperatures are back to seasonal for
Saturday night and Sunday night, featuring lows in the middle to 
upper 30's for interior locations, and low to mid 40's for the 
immediate coast. Seasonal temps are also expected for the highs, 
rebounding to the upper 50's for most locations Sunday and upper 
50's to maybe lower 60's Monday. MM/25

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A little more dynamic
extended period may exist Tuesday through Friday. Upper level
ridging building into the area Tuesday gives way to an
intensifying sub-tropical jet and approaching upper level trough
from the west Wednesday into Thursday. A weak polar jet allows for
the upper level trough to gradually shear out as it interacts with
the sub-tropical jet. The associated weak surface low tracks east
and weakens through the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday. As
this occurs, some meager to modest warm air advection (WAA) will 
be ongoing, and a slight chance to chance PoPs are maintained for 
the overnight Wednesday into Thursday night timeframe. It is 
important to mention that there is considerable run to run 
variability of forecast guidance on timing of this system, which 
will determine when the more probable rain chances occur. This
will hopefully be ironed out over the next few days. Temperatures
remain seasonal throughout the period, with highs in the lower to
middle 60's Tuesday and Wednesday, decreasing into the upper 50's
to lower 60's for Thursday and Friday. Lows vary a bit more, 
featuring temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's Tuesday 
night before increasing into the upper 40's to lower 50's 
Wednesday night. In the wake of the aforementioned system, lows 
Thursday night decrease back to seasonal in the upper 30's to 
lower 40's. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for coastal 
waters out 60 NM until 6 PM where seas will remain elevated up to 
around 7 feet for the next few hours. Seas should otherwise slowly 
subside through Saturday. A moderate to occasionally strong offshore 
flow still looks to return following the passage of another cold 
front Saturday night, which will likely require Small Craft Exercise 
Caution headlines mainly for the open Gulf waters until the offshore 
flow subsides on Sunday. 21/29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

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