163 FXUS64 KMOB 012142 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 342 PM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...A potent mid level low pressure system continues to lift toward the MO/IL border early this afternoon, while another was moving across northern Mexico and far west Texas. The region of deeply moist southwest flow aloft has mostly shifted to the east of our region early this afternoon, though a few lingering light rain showers may still skirt locations southeast of a Florala to Destin line for the next couple of hours. The vigorous system over the Upper Midwest will continue to lift northeastward toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region tonight, while the next trough over far west Texas moves northeastward toward north Texas and Oklahoma. A southwest flow pattern aloft will persist across the north central Gulf Coast region ahead of these features through Saturday. Short range guidance continues to show another shortwave impulse embedded within southwest flow aloft lifting northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico late tonight into Saturday. A weak front will move across our area tonight before becoming stationary from the central Gulf and northeastward through the Florida Big Bend region and into southeastern Georgia late tonight into Saturday. A zone of ascent and increasing deep layer moisture ahead of the shortwave trough will allow for increasing coverage of rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms along the frontal zone later tonight and especially into the day Saturday. The latest guidance indicates that rain chances will remain focused offshore over our Gulf marine zones through late tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the lower to mid 40s across southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama and from around 50 degrees to the mid 50s across the rest of the region. Rain chances will be on the increase across the western Florida panhandle and portions of south central and southwest Alabama during the day Saturday. Likely POPs (>60% chance) have been indicated generally southeast of a Florala to Navarre line by Saturday afternoon, with slight to chance POPs indicated as far northwest as near the I-65 corridor. Dry conditions are currently anticipated across the rest of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi Saturday. Our forecast area remains relatively cool in the upper 50s to mid 60s with no instability indicated, so no severe weather is anticipated. The latest guidance and beach observations indicate that surf heights should range between 4-7 feet along our local beaches through the rest of the afternoon. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches through the remainder of the afternoon. Surf should continue to decrease tonight. A HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents along local beaches through late tonight. /21 && .SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Tranquil weather resumes as a broad, ejecting upper level trough shifts northeast Saturday night into Sunday, giving way to strong southwesterly flow aloft. Another weak shortwave sharpens some as it progresses across the central U.S., becoming more diffuse and broad as it pushes across the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic states Monday into Monday night. At the surface, rain east of I-65 associated with a developing area of low pressure over the southeastern U.S. comes to an end Saturday night. This gives way to high pressure building into the area through Monday night, continuing into the extended period. Cold air advection (CAA) ongoing throughout the column will dry out the atmosphere, reducing PWATs to generally 0.3" to 0.4". Given this along with weak jet dynamics with the trough pushing through Sunday, expect little more than few to scattered clouds over the region, clearing out completely for Monday. Temperatures are back to seasonal for Saturday night and Sunday night, featuring lows in the middle to upper 30's for interior locations, and low to mid 40's for the immediate coast. Seasonal temps are also expected for the highs, rebounding to the upper 50's for most locations Sunday and upper 50's to maybe lower 60's Monday. MM/25 && .EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A little more dynamic extended period may exist Tuesday through Friday. Upper level ridging building into the area Tuesday gives way to an intensifying sub-tropical jet and approaching upper level trough from the west Wednesday into Thursday. A weak polar jet allows for the upper level trough to gradually shear out as it interacts with the sub-tropical jet. The associated weak surface low tracks east and weakens through the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday. As this occurs, some meager to modest warm air advection (WAA) will be ongoing, and a slight chance to chance PoPs are maintained for the overnight Wednesday into Thursday night timeframe. It is important to mention that there is considerable run to run variability of forecast guidance on timing of this system, which will determine when the more probable rain chances occur. This will hopefully be ironed out over the next few days. Temperatures remain seasonal throughout the period, with highs in the lower to middle 60's Tuesday and Wednesday, decreasing into the upper 50's to lower 60's for Thursday and Friday. Lows vary a bit more, featuring temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's Tuesday night before increasing into the upper 40's to lower 50's Wednesday night. In the wake of the aforementioned system, lows Thursday night decrease back to seasonal in the upper 30's to lower 40's. MM/25 && .MARINE...The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for coastal waters out 60 NM until 6 PM where seas will remain elevated up to around 7 feet for the next few hours. Seas should otherwise slowly subside through Saturday. A moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow still looks to return following the passage of another cold front Saturday night, which will likely require Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines mainly for the open Gulf waters until the offshore flow subsides on Sunday. 21/29 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655- 670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob