110 
FXUS64 KMAF 130945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the next upper trough over central New Mexico, 
rapidly moving ESE and forecast to be near the ArklaTex at around 
00Z.  Area radars show light precip ahead of this feature but, 
unfortunately, little if any of it is falling far enough south to 
benefit us, although the extreme northeast could still get clipped 
with a little rain later today.

The trough has developed a mountain wave signature over the 
Guadalupes, where high westerly winds are already occurring.  To the 
north, a strong cold front has moved into northeast New Mexico, and 
will brrrring much colder air into West Texas and Southeast New 
Mexico later today.  Increasing westerly winds this morning will 
gradually veer to the north later today as the front moves in behind 
the trough, w/fropa at KMAF ~ 18-19Z.  This will be a quick event, 
with sfc pressure gradients slackening quickly around 22Z or so. 
We'll keep the high wind warning for the Guadalupe/Delaware 
Mountains through then.  As the front plows through the area today, 
blustery conditions are anticipated over Southeast New Mexico and 
most of West Texas, and we've added a few zones in the south to the 
going advisory.  Afternoon highs will top out in the 40s and 50s 
most locations, and today should be the coldest day this forecast. 
Winds in the far south will combined with other factors to produce 
elevated fire weather along the border this afternoon.  See fire 
weather discussion below.  

As mentioned above, gradients will slacken quickly this afternoon, 
with surface winds going light and variable overnight.  Although a 
few high clouds are expected to stream in over the northern zones, a 
hard freeze is still on tap area-wide.  Temperatures will attempt a 
recovery Monday, but a secondary trough will arrive over the 
Panhandles by 12Z Tuesday, dropping a secondary cold front into the 
area and keeping temps below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with 
another widespread hard freeze Tuesday night.  

Ridging finally ensues behind the trough, allowing temperatures 
Thursday afternoon to warn to near-normal, and into the 60s area-
wide Friday.  A tertiary trough swings though the region Saturday, 
with another cold front to shave a few degrees off afternoon highs, 
but this front doesn't look as strong as the first two, and temps 
should be back in the 60s Sunday.  Unfortunately, grids remain dry 
after today. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Cold front during the day today will allow for increasing 
pressure gradient across much of west TX with 20ft winds settling 
into the mid-20s kts during the afternoon time frame. Critical to 
near critical RH's will transpire over the areas south if I-10 
where RFTI's are forecast between 3-4 for much of Brewster and 
Terrell counties over to the Presidio Valley. ERC's are the 
highest in Terrell where ambient dry conditions have led to 
continued cured fuels late into the cool season. The co-location 
of highest winds and low RH's just ahead of, and behind the front 
will allow for a window of elevated fire weather concerns for the 
aforementioned areas. 

There will be a slow improvement of RH's late PM into the following 
evening, sufficiently curbing the threat near sunset and beyond, so 
have decided on a RFD across Terrell, Brewster, and the Presidio 
Valley where driest RH's and winds over an area that has trended the 
driest the past few weeks would have greatest opportunity for 
initial attack fires.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  23  52  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       47  21  55  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         61  28  55  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  51  26  58  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 46  27  49  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          43  21  49  29 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          47  16  54  28 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           49  24  52  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         48  24  52  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           50  21  54  29 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea 
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea 
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe 
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for Andrews-Chinati 
     Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe 
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

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