110 FXUS64 KMAF 130945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 345 AM CST Sun Dec 13 2020 .DISCUSSION... WV imagery shows the next upper trough over central New Mexico, rapidly moving ESE and forecast to be near the ArklaTex at around 00Z. Area radars show light precip ahead of this feature but, unfortunately, little if any of it is falling far enough south to benefit us, although the extreme northeast could still get clipped with a little rain later today. The trough has developed a mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes, where high westerly winds are already occurring. To the north, a strong cold front has moved into northeast New Mexico, and will brrrring much colder air into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico later today. Increasing westerly winds this morning will gradually veer to the north later today as the front moves in behind the trough, w/fropa at KMAF ~ 18-19Z. This will be a quick event, with sfc pressure gradients slackening quickly around 22Z or so. We'll keep the high wind warning for the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains through then. As the front plows through the area today, blustery conditions are anticipated over Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas, and we've added a few zones in the south to the going advisory. Afternoon highs will top out in the 40s and 50s most locations, and today should be the coldest day this forecast. Winds in the far south will combined with other factors to produce elevated fire weather along the border this afternoon. See fire weather discussion below. As mentioned above, gradients will slacken quickly this afternoon, with surface winds going light and variable overnight. Although a few high clouds are expected to stream in over the northern zones, a hard freeze is still on tap area-wide. Temperatures will attempt a recovery Monday, but a secondary trough will arrive over the Panhandles by 12Z Tuesday, dropping a secondary cold front into the area and keeping temps below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with another widespread hard freeze Tuesday night. Ridging finally ensues behind the trough, allowing temperatures Thursday afternoon to warn to near-normal, and into the 60s area- wide Friday. A tertiary trough swings though the region Saturday, with another cold front to shave a few degrees off afternoon highs, but this front doesn't look as strong as the first two, and temps should be back in the 60s Sunday. Unfortunately, grids remain dry after today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cold front during the day today will allow for increasing pressure gradient across much of west TX with 20ft winds settling into the mid-20s kts during the afternoon time frame. Critical to near critical RH's will transpire over the areas south if I-10 where RFTI's are forecast between 3-4 for much of Brewster and Terrell counties over to the Presidio Valley. ERC's are the highest in Terrell where ambient dry conditions have led to continued cured fuels late into the cool season. The co-location of highest winds and low RH's just ahead of, and behind the front will allow for a window of elevated fire weather concerns for the aforementioned areas. There will be a slow improvement of RH's late PM into the following evening, sufficiently curbing the threat near sunset and beyond, so have decided on a RFD across Terrell, Brewster, and the Presidio Valley where driest RH's and winds over an area that has trended the driest the past few weeks would have greatest opportunity for initial attack fires. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 48 23 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 47 21 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 61 28 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 51 26 58 38 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 46 27 49 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 43 21 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 47 16 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 49 24 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 48 24 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 50 21 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Loving- Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains- Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. && $$ 87/44