316 
FXUS62 KJAX 072318
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
618 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020

.AVIATION...[Through 00Z Wednesday]
Low clouds moving across se Ga will decrease this evening as 
trough shifts offshore. Ceilings around 3500 feet will clear at 
SSI by 02z. VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Tuesday. WNW
winds will gradually decrease to 5 to 10 knots this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [343 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE...

The first of two cold fronts has pushed its way out the region this 
afternoon, leaving clear skies across northern Florida and a 
stratocumulus field across SE Georgia. The second front, will sweep 
across the area tonight, ushering in cold, dry air on low-level 
northerly flow behind it. As a deepening surface low off the 
Carolina coast slides poleward along the Atlantic Seaboard tonight, 
gradients will slacken and breezy conditions will begin to subside. 
Temperatures will quickly drop tonight as winds relax, bottoming out 
with lows near-freezing across interior areas of southeast Georgia, 
to the mid-upper 30s across northern Florida, and to the upper 30s 
to near 40 along the Atlantic coast. Some here-and-there patches of 
frost will be possible tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Clear skies and cold temps will continue through mid-week with the 
coldest morning expected to be Wednesday. A low to mid level 
shortwave will pivot through the Southeast Tuesday night, bringing a 
reinforcing shot cold air. There is some uncertainity in the 
potential for a widespread inland freeze Wednesday morning. The 
degree of cold air advection has trended weaker over the past couple 
of runs and current guidance has trended slightly warmer with 
morning lows. With these factors in mind, held off on adding any 
freeze headlines just yet. With near-freezing temps and little to no 
wind, areas of frost will be likely for inland areas.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Later this week, surface high pressure will shift from the Gulf 
across the Florida Peninsula late with height rises aloft as a 
flattened mid-level ridge progresses eastward. This will result 
in quiet weather and gradually warming temps through at least 
Friday. Afternoon highs will trend several degrees warmer than 
normal by Friday as high pressure develops to the northeast and 
low-level flow veers south.

Considerable uncertainty remains in the extended with the next low 
pressure system, expected to pass through this weekend. Models 
are struggling with evolution of the mid-level trough and the 
timing of the associated surface cold front. The GFS continues to 
be a bit faster, pushing a relatively dry front through between 
Saturday night and daybreak Sunday, whereas the ECMWF is slower, 
bringing the front through Sunday evening. Current forecast leans 
toward lower rain chances with the front and another modest cool 
down early next week.


.MARINE...

Northwesterly winds are currently increasing over the 
waters and will continue to increase this evening in the wake of a 
couple cold fronts. Sustained winds of 20-25 knots will build 
nearshore seas to 4-6' and offshore seas to 6-9' tonight. This will 
result in hazardous small craft conditions through tomorrow morning; 
improving conditions expected by Tuesday afternoon. Light winds and 
fair boating conditions are expected by Tuesday evening and will 
continue through the end of the week as high pressure builds over 
the coastal waters.

Rip Currents: Low Risk on Tuesday at all beaches


.FIRE WEATHER...

Breezy NW winds with gusts to 25 mph are likely through the 
afternoon before subsiding tonight. Light to calm winds through the 
rest of the weak will lead to modest dispersion and ventilation. 
Near-freezing temps are expected tomorrow morning and again 
Wednesday morning as a dry, cold airmass overspreads the region. 
With the dry air, afternoon humidity will fall into the 30-40% range 
over the next couple of days before recovering to 50-60% by the 
weekend as high pressure slides into the Atlantic and winds veer to 
the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  32  53  31  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  38  55  36  59  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JAX  37  56  35  60  41 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  40  57  39  60  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  35  56  32  60  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  37  57  33  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from 
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&