316 FXUS62 KJAX 072318 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 618 PM EST Mon Dec 7 2020 .AVIATION...[Through 00Z Wednesday] Low clouds moving across se Ga will decrease this evening as trough shifts offshore. Ceilings around 3500 feet will clear at SSI by 02z. VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Tuesday. WNW winds will gradually decrease to 5 to 10 knots this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION [343 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... ...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE... The first of two cold fronts has pushed its way out the region this afternoon, leaving clear skies across northern Florida and a stratocumulus field across SE Georgia. The second front, will sweep across the area tonight, ushering in cold, dry air on low-level northerly flow behind it. As a deepening surface low off the Carolina coast slides poleward along the Atlantic Seaboard tonight, gradients will slacken and breezy conditions will begin to subside. Temperatures will quickly drop tonight as winds relax, bottoming out with lows near-freezing across interior areas of southeast Georgia, to the mid-upper 30s across northern Florida, and to the upper 30s to near 40 along the Atlantic coast. Some here-and-there patches of frost will be possible tonight. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... Clear skies and cold temps will continue through mid-week with the coldest morning expected to be Wednesday. A low to mid level shortwave will pivot through the Southeast Tuesday night, bringing a reinforcing shot cold air. There is some uncertainity in the potential for a widespread inland freeze Wednesday morning. The degree of cold air advection has trended weaker over the past couple of runs and current guidance has trended slightly warmer with morning lows. With these factors in mind, held off on adding any freeze headlines just yet. With near-freezing temps and little to no wind, areas of frost will be likely for inland areas. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... Later this week, surface high pressure will shift from the Gulf across the Florida Peninsula late with height rises aloft as a flattened mid-level ridge progresses eastward. This will result in quiet weather and gradually warming temps through at least Friday. Afternoon highs will trend several degrees warmer than normal by Friday as high pressure develops to the northeast and low-level flow veers south. Considerable uncertainty remains in the extended with the next low pressure system, expected to pass through this weekend. Models are struggling with evolution of the mid-level trough and the timing of the associated surface cold front. The GFS continues to be a bit faster, pushing a relatively dry front through between Saturday night and daybreak Sunday, whereas the ECMWF is slower, bringing the front through Sunday evening. Current forecast leans toward lower rain chances with the front and another modest cool down early next week. .MARINE... Northwesterly winds are currently increasing over the waters and will continue to increase this evening in the wake of a couple cold fronts. Sustained winds of 20-25 knots will build nearshore seas to 4-6' and offshore seas to 6-9' tonight. This will result in hazardous small craft conditions through tomorrow morning; improving conditions expected by Tuesday afternoon. Light winds and fair boating conditions are expected by Tuesday evening and will continue through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the coastal waters. Rip Currents: Low Risk on Tuesday at all beaches .FIRE WEATHER... Breezy NW winds with gusts to 25 mph are likely through the afternoon before subsiding tonight. Light to calm winds through the rest of the weak will lead to modest dispersion and ventilation. Near-freezing temps are expected tomorrow morning and again Wednesday morning as a dry, cold airmass overspreads the region. With the dry air, afternoon humidity will fall into the 30-40% range over the next couple of days before recovering to 50-60% by the weekend as high pressure slides into the Atlantic and winds veer to the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 32 53 31 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 38 55 36 59 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 37 56 35 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 40 57 39 60 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 35 56 32 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 37 57 33 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM. &&