853 
FXUS62 KMLB 070331
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Band of moisture is moving in from the Gulf across our far northern 
counties as well as across Okeechobee and Indian River counties 
southward. Satellite imagery shows a thick cloud deck has moved in 
over the local area from the Gulf. This thickening trend will 
continue with the cloud deck height expected to lower overnight and 
remain most of the day Monday. Rain chances will steadily increase 
overnight across ECFL as a strong cold front approaches the area. 
Highest coverage for moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded 
scattered lightning storms will occur from a line extending from 
Melbourne to Kissimmee southward on Monday morning from around 
midnight to 6 AM. Rain chances will begin to decrease Monday 
afternoon, starting in the northern counties and continuing 
southward throughout the day. 

Overnight lows for tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s except 
for lower 50s across northern Volusia County, and in the low 60s 
across Martin county. Tomorrow, highs will remain in the upper 60s 
and lower 70s. However, with cold advection ongoing through late 
afternoon, noticeably colder temperatures will be observed from 
early evening tomorrow through the overnight hours. 



&&

.Aviation...
Conditions expected to deteriorate tonight starting around 03Z, as a 
strong cold front approaches the Florida peninsula. A thick cloud 
deck has moved into the local area from the Gulf, causing OVC 
conditions for all terminals. This thick cloud deck is expected to 
stay through the TAF period, with MVFR ceilings forecast to set in 
around 08Z. Guidance is showing IFR ceilings from 12Z to 15Z across 
all terminals , but kept ceilings at MVFR level for now, may need to 
amend during the next TAF package. Rain chances will increase 
through tonight and into tomorrow, with -SHRA starting at 03Z for 
all terminals. Rain chances decrease tomorrow afternoon (around 
16Z), starting in the northern terminals and moving southward. Winds 
will be light and variable through the overnight hours, becoming WNW 
at 5-10 KT by morning. Winds are expected to increase starting at 
20Z from KMLB southward with winds 10-15 KT and gusts up to 20 KT 
possible.  

&&

.Marine...  
Conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight and continue into 
tomorrow. Winds will slowly increase tonight, with winds starting 
off SE around 5-10 KT before veering S/SW and increasing to 10-15 KT 
by daybreak. Winds will then increase to 15-20 KT starting in the 
Volusia and Brevard county waters starting early in the morning and 
then spread across all the waters by the afternoon as a strong cold 
front passes through. Rain chances will increase tonight, with 
scattered to numerous showers with embedded scattered lightning 
storms possible through tomorrow. Highest coverage will be from 
Sebastian Inlet southward in the morning. Seas will be 3-4 ft in the 
morning and increasing to 5-6 ft in the offshore waters by tomorrow 
afternoon.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  54  68  42 /  10  70  30   0 
MCO  71  58  70  44 /  10  70  30   0 
MLB  74  55  73  43 /  10  80  30   0 
VRB  76  57  72  45 /  10  80  60   0 
LEE  69  56  68  42 /  10  70  30   0 
SFB  71  56  70  43 /  10  70  30   0 
ORL  72  59  70  44 /  10  70  30   0 
FPR  76  57  74  44 /  10  90  60   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for 
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard 
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Watson/Negron