853 FXUS62 KMLB 070331 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1031 PM EST Sun Dec 6 2020 .DISCUSSION... Band of moisture is moving in from the Gulf across our far northern counties as well as across Okeechobee and Indian River counties southward. Satellite imagery shows a thick cloud deck has moved in over the local area from the Gulf. This thickening trend will continue with the cloud deck height expected to lower overnight and remain most of the day Monday. Rain chances will steadily increase overnight across ECFL as a strong cold front approaches the area. Highest coverage for moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded scattered lightning storms will occur from a line extending from Melbourne to Kissimmee southward on Monday morning from around midnight to 6 AM. Rain chances will begin to decrease Monday afternoon, starting in the northern counties and continuing southward throughout the day. Overnight lows for tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s except for lower 50s across northern Volusia County, and in the low 60s across Martin county. Tomorrow, highs will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, with cold advection ongoing through late afternoon, noticeably colder temperatures will be observed from early evening tomorrow through the overnight hours. && .Aviation... Conditions expected to deteriorate tonight starting around 03Z, as a strong cold front approaches the Florida peninsula. A thick cloud deck has moved into the local area from the Gulf, causing OVC conditions for all terminals. This thick cloud deck is expected to stay through the TAF period, with MVFR ceilings forecast to set in around 08Z. Guidance is showing IFR ceilings from 12Z to 15Z across all terminals , but kept ceilings at MVFR level for now, may need to amend during the next TAF package. Rain chances will increase through tonight and into tomorrow, with -SHRA starting at 03Z for all terminals. Rain chances decrease tomorrow afternoon (around 16Z), starting in the northern terminals and moving southward. Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours, becoming WNW at 5-10 KT by morning. Winds are expected to increase starting at 20Z from KMLB southward with winds 10-15 KT and gusts up to 20 KT possible. && .Marine... Conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight and continue into tomorrow. Winds will slowly increase tonight, with winds starting off SE around 5-10 KT before veering S/SW and increasing to 10-15 KT by daybreak. Winds will then increase to 15-20 KT starting in the Volusia and Brevard county waters starting early in the morning and then spread across all the waters by the afternoon as a strong cold front passes through. Rain chances will increase tonight, with scattered to numerous showers with embedded scattered lightning storms possible through tomorrow. Highest coverage will be from Sebastian Inlet southward in the morning. Seas will be 3-4 ft in the morning and increasing to 5-6 ft in the offshore waters by tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 54 68 42 / 10 70 30 0 MCO 71 58 70 44 / 10 70 30 0 MLB 74 55 73 43 / 10 80 30 0 VRB 76 57 72 45 / 10 80 60 0 LEE 69 56 68 42 / 10 70 30 0 SFB 71 56 70 43 / 10 70 30 0 ORL 72 59 70 44 / 10 70 30 0 FPR 76 57 74 44 / 10 90 60 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Watson/Negron