407 
FXUS64 KLUB 012012
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
212 PM CST Tue Dec 1 2020

.SHORT TERM...
A potent shortwave is digging into the southern Rocky Mountain range 
and will begin to pivot across the south-central Great Plains 
tonight into tomorrow. At the surface, a strong cold front will 
progress through the CWA tonight with an abrupt wind shift to the 
north. Low-end windy conditions are expected to develop on the 
Caprock post-frontal passage in response to modest pressure rises of 
around 8 mb/6 hr, while remaining breezy across the Rolling Plains 
overnight. These conditions will persist throughout the day 
Wednesday with the potential for Wind Advisory criteria to be met 
across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle through the late morning 
to mid-afternoon hours as the mid-level shortwave digs into the 
Panhandle region.

The potential is low for light precipitation to develop across the 
far northeastern Rolling Plains tomorrow morning, as it is 
contingent upon placement of the deformation axis as 
precipitation wraps around the back side of the low. Dry air 
intrusion in the low-levels from the passage of the polar front 
should keep the sub-cloud layer well-mixed to around 1-km AGL, 
greatly limiting any accumulation of rainfall and confining it to 
northeastern Childress County. The magnitude of cold air advection
in the post-FROPA environment will be quite strong, with high 
temperatures ranging from the middle 30s in the northwestern South
Plains and the far southern Texas Panhandle, to the lower-middle 
40s across the South and Rolling Plains on Wednesday.

Sincavage

.LONG TERM...
Upper level lows will be quite abundant within the long term, 
however impacts will be limited across the forecast area. While 
the overall pattern is fairly consistent early on, model guidance
continues to diverge in the long term pattern specifically in 
regard to the potential for a cut off low to develop. To begin the
period, the upper level low mentioned above will be located 
across western OK as it slowly lifts to the northeast. The surface
pressure gradient will continue to relax overnight however cold 
air advection will continue through the night leading to chilly 
Thursday morning temperatures mainly in the 20's. An additional 
area of low pressure will dive southwest into the Four Corners 
region Wednesday afternoon and this piece of energy continues to 
be handled differently between the ECMWF and GFS. ECMWF ensemble 
has remained consistent with cutting this feature off from the 
main flow while the GEFS opens this wave up, traversing South 
Texas this weekend. Regardless of which solution is "correct", 
surface impacts for our region will be very limited with no 
rainfall potential and temperatures gradually warming back to near
seasonal normals. /WCI 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

09/58