407 FXUS64 KLUB 012012 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 212 PM CST Tue Dec 1 2020 .SHORT TERM... A potent shortwave is digging into the southern Rocky Mountain range and will begin to pivot across the south-central Great Plains tonight into tomorrow. At the surface, a strong cold front will progress through the CWA tonight with an abrupt wind shift to the north. Low-end windy conditions are expected to develop on the Caprock post-frontal passage in response to modest pressure rises of around 8 mb/6 hr, while remaining breezy across the Rolling Plains overnight. These conditions will persist throughout the day Wednesday with the potential for Wind Advisory criteria to be met across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle through the late morning to mid-afternoon hours as the mid-level shortwave digs into the Panhandle region. The potential is low for light precipitation to develop across the far northeastern Rolling Plains tomorrow morning, as it is contingent upon placement of the deformation axis as precipitation wraps around the back side of the low. Dry air intrusion in the low-levels from the passage of the polar front should keep the sub-cloud layer well-mixed to around 1-km AGL, greatly limiting any accumulation of rainfall and confining it to northeastern Childress County. The magnitude of cold air advection in the post-FROPA environment will be quite strong, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 30s in the northwestern South Plains and the far southern Texas Panhandle, to the lower-middle 40s across the South and Rolling Plains on Wednesday. Sincavage .LONG TERM... Upper level lows will be quite abundant within the long term, however impacts will be limited across the forecast area. While the overall pattern is fairly consistent early on, model guidance continues to diverge in the long term pattern specifically in regard to the potential for a cut off low to develop. To begin the period, the upper level low mentioned above will be located across western OK as it slowly lifts to the northeast. The surface pressure gradient will continue to relax overnight however cold air advection will continue through the night leading to chilly Thursday morning temperatures mainly in the 20's. An additional area of low pressure will dive southwest into the Four Corners region Wednesday afternoon and this piece of energy continues to be handled differently between the ECMWF and GFS. ECMWF ensemble has remained consistent with cutting this feature off from the main flow while the GEFS opens this wave up, traversing South Texas this weekend. Regardless of which solution is "correct", surface impacts for our region will be very limited with no rainfall potential and temperatures gradually warming back to near seasonal normals. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 09/58