709 
FXUS62 KJAX 011727
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1227 PM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

.AVIATION...[Through 18Z Wednesday]
VFR conditions will continue with clear skies and unlimited vsbys.
Gusty NW winds will decrease after 22z to 5 knots or less. Winds 
will be from the north on Wednesday at 5-10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [914 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Today...Cold High pressure will build in from the West through the
day today and gusty/brisk Northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with
occasional gusts up to 30 mph this morning will slowly fade during
the afternoon hours. Despite the Sunny skies Max Temps will only
top out in the upper 40s/near 50 across SE GA and lower/middle 50s
across NE FL with the strong cold air advection across the region.
Some wind chills falling into the 20s early this morning around 
sunrise as temps fall into the 30s, but expected to remain above
wind chill advisory levels.

Tonight...High pressure builds directly over the SE US with a
ridge axis down into the FL Peninsula, this setup along with
mainly clear skies and light NW winds less than 5 mph will result
in good radiational cooling conditions and expect widespread lows
in the upper 20s/near 30 degrees over all of SE GA except for the
beaches and all of inland NE FL except for areas east of the St
Johns River Basin south of Jacksonville, where lows in the lower
to middle 30s are expected. With medium to high confidence in
inland Freeze, have upgraded Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning with
this package. Latest model runs start to push some high level
cirrus clouds out of the Gulf of Mexico across the region by
sunrise Wednesday morning, but likely too late to have much impact
on low temperatures. Some patchy/areas of frost will be possible
as well over most inland areas, due to the light winds with best
coverage over wind protected areas, and regions that received
decent rainfall amounts from the frontal system to provide for
more low level moisture.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Friday]...

Strong high pressure will be centered to the north Wednesday, then
northeast Thursday into Thursday night, with the weather dry. With 
the high to the north a cool northerly flow will continue Wednesday,
with temperatures remaining in the 50s. The flow will become more 
onshore Wednesday night, this will allow temperatures near the coast
to be significantly warmer than inland due to the relatively warmer 
coastal waters. Lows will range about 20 degrees across the region
Wednesday night from the lower 30s over inland NE GA, to around 50 
along the NE FL coast. Temperatures will continue to moderate into
Thursday, with highs generally in the 60s, south of GNV to SGJ 
expected to get into lower 70s. An even milder night anticipated for
Thursday night, with lows ranging from mid 40s inland SE GA, to the 
upper 50s coastal NE FL. 

The high will move more toward the east northeast Friday, as a wave 
of low pressure lifts northeast from gulf, and moves into cold 
frontal zone. This wave coupled with increasingly moist 
southeasterly flow will lead to precipitation potential. Highs in 
the 70s will become common Friday, except for inland SE GA, where 
highs will be in the upper 60s. At this point Friday rain chances 
are questionable, as model handling of this time frame is 
inconsistent. Will favor isolated to scattered coverage, but based 
on timing, it could end up being a mostly dry day, especially for 
NE FL.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Monday]...

Cold front will swing through Friday night into Saturday. Longer 
range models differ a little on timing and strength, but in general
boundary should be south of forecast area Saturday afternoon. Rain 
chances will be expected Friday night through at least Saturday 
morning.  

The region will be between high pressure to the west southwest, and 
low pressure to the northeast Saturday night through Monday, with 
dry weather and temperatures below normal.


.MARINE...

Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions in strong cold air advection
this morning with NW winds 20-25 knots with occasional gusts to
gale force at times. Winds begin to decrease this afternoon and
tonight then become North To Northeast at 10-15 knots on Wednesday 
as High Pressure builds just north of the waters, then pushes
offshore into the Wrn Atlc and onshore East to Southeast flow is
expected Thursday and Friday, with next cold frontal passage on 
track for Saturday. With this package, not expecting marine
headlines in the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

Rip Currents: Low Risk in the offshore flow.


.FIRE WEATHER...

For Today, RH levels will fall into the 30 to 35 percent range, as 
winds remain somewhat elevated. But, conditions are not expected to 
meet criteria for headlines. For Wednesday, RH levels will dip into 
the 20s across much of the area in the afternoon, but winds will be 
on the light side. So, once again criteria are not expected to be 
met for headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  27  55  32  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  34  57  44  67  54 /   0   0   0   0  10 
JAX  30  57  42  69  54 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SGJ  35  60  49  71  58 /   0   0   0  10  10 
GNV  30  58  38  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10 
OCF  31  60  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for 
     Baker-Bradford-Central Marion-Clay-Coastal Nassau-Eastern 
     Alachua-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-
     Northern Columbia-Putnam-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union-
     Western Alachua-Western Marion.

GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for 
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff 
     Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern 
     Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for Waters 
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 
     20 to 60 NM.

&&