709 FXUS62 KJAX 011727 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1227 PM EST Tue Dec 1 2020 .AVIATION...[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will continue with clear skies and unlimited vsbys. Gusty NW winds will decrease after 22z to 5 knots or less. Winds will be from the north on Wednesday at 5-10 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION [914 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Today...Cold High pressure will build in from the West through the day today and gusty/brisk Northwest winds at 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts up to 30 mph this morning will slowly fade during the afternoon hours. Despite the Sunny skies Max Temps will only top out in the upper 40s/near 50 across SE GA and lower/middle 50s across NE FL with the strong cold air advection across the region. Some wind chills falling into the 20s early this morning around sunrise as temps fall into the 30s, but expected to remain above wind chill advisory levels. Tonight...High pressure builds directly over the SE US with a ridge axis down into the FL Peninsula, this setup along with mainly clear skies and light NW winds less than 5 mph will result in good radiational cooling conditions and expect widespread lows in the upper 20s/near 30 degrees over all of SE GA except for the beaches and all of inland NE FL except for areas east of the St Johns River Basin south of Jacksonville, where lows in the lower to middle 30s are expected. With medium to high confidence in inland Freeze, have upgraded Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning with this package. Latest model runs start to push some high level cirrus clouds out of the Gulf of Mexico across the region by sunrise Wednesday morning, but likely too late to have much impact on low temperatures. Some patchy/areas of frost will be possible as well over most inland areas, due to the light winds with best coverage over wind protected areas, and regions that received decent rainfall amounts from the frontal system to provide for more low level moisture. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Friday]... Strong high pressure will be centered to the north Wednesday, then northeast Thursday into Thursday night, with the weather dry. With the high to the north a cool northerly flow will continue Wednesday, with temperatures remaining in the 50s. The flow will become more onshore Wednesday night, this will allow temperatures near the coast to be significantly warmer than inland due to the relatively warmer coastal waters. Lows will range about 20 degrees across the region Wednesday night from the lower 30s over inland NE GA, to around 50 along the NE FL coast. Temperatures will continue to moderate into Thursday, with highs generally in the 60s, south of GNV to SGJ expected to get into lower 70s. An even milder night anticipated for Thursday night, with lows ranging from mid 40s inland SE GA, to the upper 50s coastal NE FL. The high will move more toward the east northeast Friday, as a wave of low pressure lifts northeast from gulf, and moves into cold frontal zone. This wave coupled with increasingly moist southeasterly flow will lead to precipitation potential. Highs in the 70s will become common Friday, except for inland SE GA, where highs will be in the upper 60s. At this point Friday rain chances are questionable, as model handling of this time frame is inconsistent. Will favor isolated to scattered coverage, but based on timing, it could end up being a mostly dry day, especially for NE FL. .LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Monday]... Cold front will swing through Friday night into Saturday. Longer range models differ a little on timing and strength, but in general boundary should be south of forecast area Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will be expected Friday night through at least Saturday morning. The region will be between high pressure to the west southwest, and low pressure to the northeast Saturday night through Monday, with dry weather and temperatures below normal. .MARINE... Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions in strong cold air advection this morning with NW winds 20-25 knots with occasional gusts to gale force at times. Winds begin to decrease this afternoon and tonight then become North To Northeast at 10-15 knots on Wednesday as High Pressure builds just north of the waters, then pushes offshore into the Wrn Atlc and onshore East to Southeast flow is expected Thursday and Friday, with next cold frontal passage on track for Saturday. With this package, not expecting marine headlines in the Wednesday through Saturday time frame. Rip Currents: Low Risk in the offshore flow. .FIRE WEATHER... For Today, RH levels will fall into the 30 to 35 percent range, as winds remain somewhat elevated. But, conditions are not expected to meet criteria for headlines. For Wednesday, RH levels will dip into the 20s across much of the area in the afternoon, but winds will be on the light side. So, once again criteria are not expected to be met for headlines. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 27 55 32 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 34 57 44 67 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 JAX 30 57 42 69 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 SGJ 35 60 49 71 58 / 0 0 0 10 10 GNV 30 58 38 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 OCF 31 60 41 72 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Baker-Bradford-Central Marion-Clay-Coastal Nassau-Eastern Alachua-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau- Northern Columbia-Putnam-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union- Western Alachua-Western Marion. GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. &&