589 
FXUS61 KGYX 261301 AAC
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
801 AM EST Thu Nov 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crossing southern New England today will bring rain
and light wintry precipitation this morning across the interior
and mountains. Temperatures will gradually rise through the day
changing wintry precipitation to all rain this afternoon.
Outside of a few mountain rain and snow showers, mainly dry
weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Early next week
low pressure will develop to our west bringing rain and gusty
winds Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM Update...
Just a quick update to allow the winter weather advisories to
expire in NH. Temperatures have risen above freezing, but roads
may remain slick. 


630 AM Update...
Large area of stratiform precipitation is moving across the 
region this morning, with a mix of p-types occurring. Within the
winter wx advisory area, we are seeing mainly freezing rain and
some patchy sleet. Have allowed the coast to drop out of the 
advisory as advertised as above freezing air gradually creeps 
northward. Quick peek at this morning's sounding shows a 
saturated layer with about +10C of warming within 3 kft. Fog has
formed with the increase in low level moisture. Winter weather 
advisories for NH should be allowed to expire on schedule at 8 
am. Plain rain is falling everywhere else.


Previous discussion... 
Subfreezing wedge of colder air remains in place early this 
morning and is dammed along the higher terrain of NH and ME. 
Surface temperatures will remain below freezing for the 
remainder of the morning and into early afternoon for these 
areas. Increasing WAA develops today with a warm front lifting 
across the area which will supply steady lift resulting in light
precipitation. Winter weather advisories remain in place for 
most of the area as a compact southern stream wave crosses the 
area from the SW. 

Precipitation shield now moving in from our SW will bring mainly 
rain for the coastal plain later today, but early on we may see a 
wintry mix. There is also some elevated instability, and we could 
see some isolated thunder along the coast late this afternoon. 

Temperatures gradually increase today, with the interior taking the 
longest to rise above freezing. The coastal front will push inland 
mostly over the Mid Coast, and will remain just offshore for much of 
the area. Most locations should rise into the upper 30s to lower 
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation really ramps down tonight with the passage of the
short wave to the east. High pressure builds in from the west,
Expecting widespread fog, some of it dense, overnight as low
level moisture will remain in place and trapped under an
inversion. Overcast skies will help keep temperatures in the mid
30s to lower 40s- similar to what they will be for highs today. 

Friday will be somewhat warmer with light westerly winds. Skies
remain cloudy and we will could see a few light mountain showers
in WSW flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Temperatures will generally run above normal this weekend into next 
week with above normal precipitation for the extended period, 
primarily from the potential for heavy rain Monday night 
through Tuesday night. A cold front will cross the area Saturday
bringing a chance for rain and snow showers mainly to the 
mountains. Fair weather is expected Sunday as high pressure 
slides across southern New England. Global models remain in good
agreement of a highly amplified pattern early next week with a 
surface low tracking to our west bringing the potential for 
strong winds and heavy rain.

Cold front crossing the area Saturday will be rather weak without 
much cold air behind it. Moisture and lift will be limited so only 
expecting scattered rain and snow showers in the mountains with 
partly cloudy skies downstream.  High pressure crosses southern New 
England Sunday for fair weather and temperatures in the upper 
30s north to near 50 south. 

Attention then turns a complex pattern change next work week as 
northern and southern stream energy phase over the Ohio Valley with 
upstream blocking. Global models remain in good agreement with 
cyclogenesis occuring over the central Appalachians with low 
pressure tracking to through western New York. This track places
our area in the warm sector with this system bringing mostly
rain to the area. There remains potential for this system to
bring heavy rain sometime Monday night through Tuesday as PWATs
approach 1.5 inches and strong developing south to 
southeasterly low level jet. Ensemble probabilities show around
80% chance that much of the area will see greater than an inch 
of QPF in a 24 hour period. With this system still several days 
out there remains time to iron out the fine details, but with 
the potential for heavy rain, strong winds, and high surf this 
system bears watching over the next few days. Unsettled weather
is expected through the middle of next week as cyclonic flow 
remains over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Still some pockets of VFR out there this morning,
but increasing WAA and precipitation will result in varying
ceilings and p-types. Most areas will see rain, but there may be
-FZDZ or -FZRA early on this morning. Fog will also be prevalent
 across the area. Once precipitation moves away tonight, low
 level moisture will remain and create low stratus and some
 areas of dense fog.  

Long Term...Mainly VFR through the weekend with periods of MVFR
in the mountains in SHRA/SHSN. Conditions deteriorate Monday
night in low cigs and rain with increasing southeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A warm front lifts across the waters from the WSW
today, allowing for gusty winds and increasing seas. A SCA has
been hoisted for later this morning until early Friday 
afternoon when seas will drop below 5 ft. 

Long Term...Seas generally less than 5 ft through the weekend
with winds gusting to 20 kts Saturday night behind a cold front.
Low pressure tracking to our west Monday night with bring likely
SCA by Monday afternoon with Gales possible Tuesday with seas
building in excess of 10 ft.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>021-033.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Schroeter