589 FXUS61 KGYX 261301 AAC AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 801 AM EST Thu Nov 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure crossing southern New England today will bring rain and light wintry precipitation this morning across the interior and mountains. Temperatures will gradually rise through the day changing wintry precipitation to all rain this afternoon. Outside of a few mountain rain and snow showers, mainly dry weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Early next week low pressure will develop to our west bringing rain and gusty winds Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 8 AM Update... Just a quick update to allow the winter weather advisories to expire in NH. Temperatures have risen above freezing, but roads may remain slick. 630 AM Update... Large area of stratiform precipitation is moving across the region this morning, with a mix of p-types occurring. Within the winter wx advisory area, we are seeing mainly freezing rain and some patchy sleet. Have allowed the coast to drop out of the advisory as advertised as above freezing air gradually creeps northward. Quick peek at this morning's sounding shows a saturated layer with about +10C of warming within 3 kft. Fog has formed with the increase in low level moisture. Winter weather advisories for NH should be allowed to expire on schedule at 8 am. Plain rain is falling everywhere else. Previous discussion... Subfreezing wedge of colder air remains in place early this morning and is dammed along the higher terrain of NH and ME. Surface temperatures will remain below freezing for the remainder of the morning and into early afternoon for these areas. Increasing WAA develops today with a warm front lifting across the area which will supply steady lift resulting in light precipitation. Winter weather advisories remain in place for most of the area as a compact southern stream wave crosses the area from the SW. Precipitation shield now moving in from our SW will bring mainly rain for the coastal plain later today, but early on we may see a wintry mix. There is also some elevated instability, and we could see some isolated thunder along the coast late this afternoon. Temperatures gradually increase today, with the interior taking the longest to rise above freezing. The coastal front will push inland mostly over the Mid Coast, and will remain just offshore for much of the area. Most locations should rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Precipitation really ramps down tonight with the passage of the short wave to the east. High pressure builds in from the west, Expecting widespread fog, some of it dense, overnight as low level moisture will remain in place and trapped under an inversion. Overcast skies will help keep temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s- similar to what they will be for highs today. Friday will be somewhat warmer with light westerly winds. Skies remain cloudy and we will could see a few light mountain showers in WSW flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Temperatures will generally run above normal this weekend into next week with above normal precipitation for the extended period, primarily from the potential for heavy rain Monday night through Tuesday night. A cold front will cross the area Saturday bringing a chance for rain and snow showers mainly to the mountains. Fair weather is expected Sunday as high pressure slides across southern New England. Global models remain in good agreement of a highly amplified pattern early next week with a surface low tracking to our west bringing the potential for strong winds and heavy rain. Cold front crossing the area Saturday will be rather weak without much cold air behind it. Moisture and lift will be limited so only expecting scattered rain and snow showers in the mountains with partly cloudy skies downstream. High pressure crosses southern New England Sunday for fair weather and temperatures in the upper 30s north to near 50 south. Attention then turns a complex pattern change next work week as northern and southern stream energy phase over the Ohio Valley with upstream blocking. Global models remain in good agreement with cyclogenesis occuring over the central Appalachians with low pressure tracking to through western New York. This track places our area in the warm sector with this system bringing mostly rain to the area. There remains potential for this system to bring heavy rain sometime Monday night through Tuesday as PWATs approach 1.5 inches and strong developing south to southeasterly low level jet. Ensemble probabilities show around 80% chance that much of the area will see greater than an inch of QPF in a 24 hour period. With this system still several days out there remains time to iron out the fine details, but with the potential for heavy rain, strong winds, and high surf this system bears watching over the next few days. Unsettled weather is expected through the middle of next week as cyclonic flow remains over the area. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Still some pockets of VFR out there this morning, but increasing WAA and precipitation will result in varying ceilings and p-types. Most areas will see rain, but there may be -FZDZ or -FZRA early on this morning. Fog will also be prevalent across the area. Once precipitation moves away tonight, low level moisture will remain and create low stratus and some areas of dense fog. Long Term...Mainly VFR through the weekend with periods of MVFR in the mountains in SHRA/SHSN. Conditions deteriorate Monday night in low cigs and rain with increasing southeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Short Term...A warm front lifts across the waters from the WSW today, allowing for gusty winds and increasing seas. A SCA has been hoisted for later this morning until early Friday afternoon when seas will drop below 5 ft. Long Term...Seas generally less than 5 ft through the weekend with winds gusting to 20 kts Saturday night behind a cold front. Low pressure tracking to our west Monday night with bring likely SCA by Monday afternoon with Gales possible Tuesday with seas building in excess of 10 ft. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MEZ007>009- 012>014-018>021-033. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ150>152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Hanes LONG TERM...Schroeter