725 
FXUS64 KBRO 150501 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1101 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail 
across deep south Texas late this evening. VFR conditions should
continue for the next several hours. Areas of fog are expected to
develop late tonight as winds lighten ahead of an approaching 
cold front, which will move through late Sunday morning. Ceilings
are expected to lower after midnight with fog developing through 
sunrise across much of the area. Some locally dense fog will be 
possible if winds are able to calm. After the front moves through,
winds will shift to the north and increase by Sunday afternoon 
with improving conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and moderate southeast winds
prevail across deep south Texas this evening. VFR conditions 
will continue through late this evening. Winds will lighten with 
models showing a strong signal for fog ahead of an approaching 
cold front, which will move through late Sunday morning. Ceilings 
are expected to lower by midnight with fog developing through 
sunrise across much of the area. Some locally dense fog will be 
possible if winds are able to calm. After the front moves through,
winds will shift to the north and increase by Sunday afternoon 
with improving flight conditions thereafter.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): 500mb high pressure remains 
centered over Florida as the next trough moves across the Great 
Lakes tonight into Sunday. Strong southerly flow continues this 
afternoon as this storm system moves across the Plains, tightening 
the pressure gradient across Deep South Texas. With S to SSW flow, 
we are already hitting record high temperatures this afternoon in 
the low 90s. Conditions also remain breezy with peak wind gusts of 
25 to 30 mph. As the low pressure system moves eastward tonight, it 
will bring a cold front into South Texas Sunday morning. Winds ahead 
of the front will lighten and possibly even calm after midnight 
tonight through sunrise. This will lead to areas of fog across much 
of the region with some locations becoming dense with visibilities 
below half a mile at times. After the front moves through by late 
Sunday morning, breezy northerly winds are expected with scattered 
showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and east of Interstate 69 C, 
and offshore. 

By Sunday afternoon, much drier air will filter into the region with 
dew points tanking into the 30s in the northern ranchlands. Daytime 
temperatures will be much cooler than Saturday, but still fairly 
warm in the lower 80s for most locations. This will result in 
relative humidity values in the 20s for much of the northern 
ranchlands. Coupled with moderate northerly winds, elevated fire 
weather conditions will be possible through the afternoon. All 
outdoor burning is discouraged, as any fires that ignite may begin 
to spread rapidly.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Mid level ridge of high
pressure centers across South Texas through the week. At the
surface, high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS as low
pressure eventually works out of the Pacific NW and into the
Plains. The long term period for Deep South Texas remains nearly
unchanged. High temperatures top off near normal into the low 80s
gradually warming through the week, with cool mornings in the
upper 50s to low 60s gradually warming through the week as well.
The best chance of rain will remain near the southern border early
Monday and across the offshore waters into next weekend. Again,
have left POPs under 20 percent. With persistent easterly flow
across the Gulf of Mexico building swell and increasing to
elevated tide through at least mid week, coastal flooding will be
possible through Tuesday or Wednesday, at least. 

MARINE (Now through Sunday night): Moderate southerly winds will 
continue the rest of this afternoon with the strongest winds being 
across the Laguna Madre. Small craft should continue exercising 
caution. By tonight, winds will lighten ahead of the next front with 
seas subsiding temporarily. After the front moves through late 
Sunday morning, hazardous marine conditions are expected with strong 
northerly flow and building seas into Sunday night. A Small Craft 
Advisory has been issued for all lower Texas coastal waters out to 
60 nautical miles. By Sunday evening, winds should quickly diminish 
across the bay, but elevated seas will continue across the offshore 
Gulf waters.

Monday through Saturday: High pressure builds across the Gulf of
Mexico through the week, with persistent easterly onshore flow
eventually building seas and longer period swell. Marine
conditions deteriorate through the week, with Small Craft Caution
to Small Craft Advisory conditions by mid to late week. The best
chance of rain remains early Monday and again next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  79  67  78 /   0  30  20  10 
BROWNSVILLE          72  84  66  80 /   0  30  20  20 
HARLINGEN            69  80  64  79 /   0  30  20  10 
MCALLEN              70  82  62  80 /   0  30  20  20 
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  81  58  80 /   0  20  20  20 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  77  70  76 /   0  30  20  20 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63-KC