725 FXUS64 KBRO 150501 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1101 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across deep south Texas late this evening. VFR conditions should continue for the next several hours. Areas of fog are expected to develop late tonight as winds lighten ahead of an approaching cold front, which will move through late Sunday morning. Ceilings are expected to lower after midnight with fog developing through sunrise across much of the area. Some locally dense fog will be possible if winds are able to calm. After the front moves through, winds will shift to the north and increase by Sunday afternoon with improving conditions. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and moderate southeast winds prevail across deep south Texas this evening. VFR conditions will continue through late this evening. Winds will lighten with models showing a strong signal for fog ahead of an approaching cold front, which will move through late Sunday morning. Ceilings are expected to lower by midnight with fog developing through sunrise across much of the area. Some locally dense fog will be possible if winds are able to calm. After the front moves through, winds will shift to the north and increase by Sunday afternoon with improving flight conditions thereafter. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): 500mb high pressure remains centered over Florida as the next trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday. Strong southerly flow continues this afternoon as this storm system moves across the Plains, tightening the pressure gradient across Deep South Texas. With S to SSW flow, we are already hitting record high temperatures this afternoon in the low 90s. Conditions also remain breezy with peak wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph. As the low pressure system moves eastward tonight, it will bring a cold front into South Texas Sunday morning. Winds ahead of the front will lighten and possibly even calm after midnight tonight through sunrise. This will lead to areas of fog across much of the region with some locations becoming dense with visibilities below half a mile at times. After the front moves through by late Sunday morning, breezy northerly winds are expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and east of Interstate 69 C, and offshore. By Sunday afternoon, much drier air will filter into the region with dew points tanking into the 30s in the northern ranchlands. Daytime temperatures will be much cooler than Saturday, but still fairly warm in the lower 80s for most locations. This will result in relative humidity values in the 20s for much of the northern ranchlands. Coupled with moderate northerly winds, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible through the afternoon. All outdoor burning is discouraged, as any fires that ignite may begin to spread rapidly. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Mid level ridge of high pressure centers across South Texas through the week. At the surface, high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS as low pressure eventually works out of the Pacific NW and into the Plains. The long term period for Deep South Texas remains nearly unchanged. High temperatures top off near normal into the low 80s gradually warming through the week, with cool mornings in the upper 50s to low 60s gradually warming through the week as well. The best chance of rain will remain near the southern border early Monday and across the offshore waters into next weekend. Again, have left POPs under 20 percent. With persistent easterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico building swell and increasing to elevated tide through at least mid week, coastal flooding will be possible through Tuesday or Wednesday, at least. MARINE (Now through Sunday night): Moderate southerly winds will continue the rest of this afternoon with the strongest winds being across the Laguna Madre. Small craft should continue exercising caution. By tonight, winds will lighten ahead of the next front with seas subsiding temporarily. After the front moves through late Sunday morning, hazardous marine conditions are expected with strong northerly flow and building seas into Sunday night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all lower Texas coastal waters out to 60 nautical miles. By Sunday evening, winds should quickly diminish across the bay, but elevated seas will continue across the offshore Gulf waters. Monday through Saturday: High pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico through the week, with persistent easterly onshore flow eventually building seas and longer period swell. Marine conditions deteriorate through the week, with Small Craft Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions by mid to late week. The best chance of rain remains early Monday and again next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 79 67 78 / 0 30 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 72 84 66 80 / 0 30 20 20 HARLINGEN 69 80 64 79 / 0 30 20 10 MCALLEN 70 82 62 80 / 0 30 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 81 58 80 / 0 20 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 77 70 76 / 0 30 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 63-KC