240 
FXUS63 KFGF 070046
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020

This update is primarily for cloud cover as high clouds have been
a little thicker than previously anticipated. The Northern Plains
remain in southwest flow aloft with an upper low over northern CA
and a high over low setup in the eastern U.S. A stationary 
surface frontal boundary exists from SE ND northeastward through
northern MN. Some low clouds are expected to develop in northeast 
ND tonight and may spread further south and into NW MN. These 
clouds may be difficult to displace/erode tomorrow. No weather-
related impacts are expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020

Fairly low impact weather will continue through this portion of 
the forecast, with the main challenge being the huge variations in
temperatures from northwest to southeast. For tonight, it should
stay fairly cloudy with steady winds. Coolest lows will be along
the Canadian border in northeast North Dakota, with warmest lows
across west central Minnesota. This thermal orientation continues
into the day Saturday, but it should be a little cooler across
west central Minnesota. By Saturday night, the front should begin
to lift back northward, with increasing south winds. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020

The primary impacts looking ahead to the long term forecast period 
will be the drastic drop from above normal temperatures on Sunday to 
below normal temperatures for the week ahead, as well as a number of 
precipitation chances. Sunday is also expected to be windy as a low 
pressure system moves through the area.

A high amplitude upper level trough is forecast to hover over the 
Great Basin and western Four Corners region by Sunday and will 
continue to induce strong southwesterly flow aloft across the 
forecast area through midweek. This pattern will be conducive for 
multiple shortwaves to eject off the Rockies via cyclogenesis and 
will be the primary catalyst for precipitation potential throughout 
the long term period. Otherwise, ensembles are in good agreement 
that the general troughing pattern is expected to persist and flow 
aloft will shift between southwesterly and westerly dominant flow as 
a result. 

Sunday through Monday...

Despite mostly cloudy skies, a warm front will be lifting to the 
north and will keep much of the forecast area within the warm sector 
on Sunday. A strong southerly surface wind at 20-30 mph that will 
enhance warm air advection throughout the region is expected as the 
surface pressure gradient tightens with the strengthening low 
pressure system. High temperatures across the forecast area are 
expected to reach the 60s with potential to see some low 70s south 
of I-94, although cloud cover and strength of the warm air advection 
muddle confidence in high temperatures at this time. There will be 
potential for some scattered rain and a few attendant rumbles of 
thunder as well. Northern portions of the forecast area could see 
rain starting by midday associated with the progressing warm front, 
while areas primarily south of Highway 2 will likely see higher rain 
chances later in the day as the cold front pushes through. Overall, 
accumulation totals are continuing to show rather nominal values, 
however, as probability of exceeding 0.1" is less than 50% across 
the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC ensembles, with near 50% only in 
northwestern portions of the forecast area. 

A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area during the 
overnight hours into Monday morning and will introduce significantly 
colder, below normal temperatures in the 30s to low 40s across the 
area for Monday and the week ahead. A transient shortwave is also 
expected to traverse the region on Monday and could bring another 
round of precipitation to the area. Ensembles and deterministic 
models alike, however, are varying greatly with respect to this 
system and confidence in any definitive outcome is currently very 
low. 

Rest of the week... 

The bulk of the work week ahead is expected to stay below normal 
with highs in the 30s to low 40s as high pressure begins to build in 
at the surface. A few transient shortwaves may disrupt the generally 
quiet pattern with some potential for precipitation across the 
southern forecast area, although confidence is decidedly low with 
these outcomes as well. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020

Southwest flow aloft will continue over the region through the
next 24 hrs. A stationary frontal boundary lies from southeastern
ND northeastward through the arrowhead of MN. North of this
boundary will exist a chance for low ceilings. Late this afternoon,
cigs of 1000-2000 were reported in northeast ND, but the latest
reports do not indicate low level cigs. Models do indicate a
resurgence of low level cigs late tonight and tomorrow morning
across much of northeast ND and far northwest MN. Believe IFR cigs
are likely in some areas. While the cigs will improve through the
day, there will likely be some MVFR cigs remaining in northeast ND
by 00Z tomorrow. Visibility does not appear to be an
issue...except perhaps south of BJI near PKD late tonight. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Rick
AVIATION...Knutsvig