240 FXUS63 KFGF 070046 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 646 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 646 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 This update is primarily for cloud cover as high clouds have been a little thicker than previously anticipated. The Northern Plains remain in southwest flow aloft with an upper low over northern CA and a high over low setup in the eastern U.S. A stationary surface frontal boundary exists from SE ND northeastward through northern MN. Some low clouds are expected to develop in northeast ND tonight and may spread further south and into NW MN. These clouds may be difficult to displace/erode tomorrow. No weather- related impacts are expected over the next 24 hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Fairly low impact weather will continue through this portion of the forecast, with the main challenge being the huge variations in temperatures from northwest to southeast. For tonight, it should stay fairly cloudy with steady winds. Coolest lows will be along the Canadian border in northeast North Dakota, with warmest lows across west central Minnesota. This thermal orientation continues into the day Saturday, but it should be a little cooler across west central Minnesota. By Saturday night, the front should begin to lift back northward, with increasing south winds. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 The primary impacts looking ahead to the long term forecast period will be the drastic drop from above normal temperatures on Sunday to below normal temperatures for the week ahead, as well as a number of precipitation chances. Sunday is also expected to be windy as a low pressure system moves through the area. A high amplitude upper level trough is forecast to hover over the Great Basin and western Four Corners region by Sunday and will continue to induce strong southwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area through midweek. This pattern will be conducive for multiple shortwaves to eject off the Rockies via cyclogenesis and will be the primary catalyst for precipitation potential throughout the long term period. Otherwise, ensembles are in good agreement that the general troughing pattern is expected to persist and flow aloft will shift between southwesterly and westerly dominant flow as a result. Sunday through Monday... Despite mostly cloudy skies, a warm front will be lifting to the north and will keep much of the forecast area within the warm sector on Sunday. A strong southerly surface wind at 20-30 mph that will enhance warm air advection throughout the region is expected as the surface pressure gradient tightens with the strengthening low pressure system. High temperatures across the forecast area are expected to reach the 60s with potential to see some low 70s south of I-94, although cloud cover and strength of the warm air advection muddle confidence in high temperatures at this time. There will be potential for some scattered rain and a few attendant rumbles of thunder as well. Northern portions of the forecast area could see rain starting by midday associated with the progressing warm front, while areas primarily south of Highway 2 will likely see higher rain chances later in the day as the cold front pushes through. Overall, accumulation totals are continuing to show rather nominal values, however, as probability of exceeding 0.1" is less than 50% across the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMC ensembles, with near 50% only in northwestern portions of the forecast area. A strong cold front is expected to pass through the area during the overnight hours into Monday morning and will introduce significantly colder, below normal temperatures in the 30s to low 40s across the area for Monday and the week ahead. A transient shortwave is also expected to traverse the region on Monday and could bring another round of precipitation to the area. Ensembles and deterministic models alike, however, are varying greatly with respect to this system and confidence in any definitive outcome is currently very low. Rest of the week... The bulk of the work week ahead is expected to stay below normal with highs in the 30s to low 40s as high pressure begins to build in at the surface. A few transient shortwaves may disrupt the generally quiet pattern with some potential for precipitation across the southern forecast area, although confidence is decidedly low with these outcomes as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2020 Southwest flow aloft will continue over the region through the next 24 hrs. A stationary frontal boundary lies from southeastern ND northeastward through the arrowhead of MN. North of this boundary will exist a chance for low ceilings. Late this afternoon, cigs of 1000-2000 were reported in northeast ND, but the latest reports do not indicate low level cigs. Models do indicate a resurgence of low level cigs late tonight and tomorrow morning across much of northeast ND and far northwest MN. Believe IFR cigs are likely in some areas. While the cigs will improve through the day, there will likely be some MVFR cigs remaining in northeast ND by 00Z tomorrow. Visibility does not appear to be an issue...except perhaps south of BJI near PKD late tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Knutsvig SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/Rick AVIATION...Knutsvig