319 
FXUS64 KFWD 130841
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

...New Long Term... 

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020/
/Through Tuesday Night/

Calm and clear conditions prevail in the wake of a cold front that
passed Monday morning. A surface ridge extends from the Middle
Mississippi Valley through the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains to the
Trans-Pecos. Light northwesterly winds will gradually veer out of
the northeast then southeast later today as this surface ridge
moves eastward. Winds will remain light at generally less than 5
MPH.

Temperatures this morning should bottom out in the low 50s for
most locations, with a few spots north and west of the Dallas/Fort
Worth Metropolitan Area bottoming out in the upper 40s. While this
is below normal for the middle of October, it is well above any
records. For today, abundant sunshine should allow for high
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s, which is near to a
little above normal. Tuesday night, lows should be closer to
seasonal normals, with most locations falling into the mid to
upper 50s.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday through Early Next Week/

The primary focus for the latter part of the week will be a cold 
front that will move through the area on Thursday. The front
should bring cooler temperatures, gusty north winds, and will 
also reinforce the dry air that has been in place for the past few
weeks.

Wednesday will be warm to downright hot as warm advection ahead of
the cold front takes hold. Locations along and west of I-35 are 
expected to peak in the 90s, about 12-18 degrees above normal.
Gusty south winds should also prevail through the afternoon as 
the pressure gradient increases. Gulf moisture should be slow to 
return, so a saving grace for the high temperatures is that it 
will be a "dry heat". This will, however, increase the grass fire 
danger across the far western portions of the forecast area. 
Wednesday night should then be one of the warmest nights of the 
week as richer surface moisture finally gets transported into the 
region and mechanical mixing in the form of elevated wind speeds 
prevent the development of a substantial radiation inversion.

The cold front is expected to make its way across the Red River 
around sunrise Thursday morning, then continue south through the 
day and finally exit our forecast area in the late afternoon. The 
current forecast relies heavily on the NAM's depiction of the
front as it tends to handle shallow cold fronts better than the 
global guidance. As the front moves through, a sharp wind shift 
out of the north with increasing wind speeds to 20-25 mph with 
gusts of 35+ mph are expected for at least a few hours with the 
highest wind speeds generally along and west of I-35. Strong cold 
advection will also allow for falling post frontal temperatures, 
so most daily high temperatures should occur earlier in the day. 
The shallow nature of the front will also undercut the surface 
moisture transported into the region and develop a thin stratus 
layer overtop of the frontal surface. The cloud layer will be 
thickest over East and Central Texas, where some drizzle or light 
rain may develop out of this cloud layer. Little to no precip 
accumulation is expected with this activity, therefore PoPs are 
less than 20%. Our westernmost counties should remain cloud free 
through the day, therefore, another day with elevated fire weather
concerns is expected despite the cooler temperatures.

The stratus should clear out from north to south through the night
with most everyone becoming cloud free by daybreak Friday.
Continued cold advection will help drop Friday morning's lows 
into the 40s and 50s areawide. Friday looks to be a pretty nice 
day as the high pressure center moves into the region. Highs 
should be in the upper 60s to low 70s with clear skies and light 
northeast winds. Dry air, clear skies, and light winds should 
allow for strong radiational cooling to take place Friday night 
into Saturday with most rural locations dropping into the low to 
mid 40s while urban areas remain in the upper 40s to low 50s.

The high pressure center shifts east pretty quick and allows 
return flow to set back up by Saturday as another leeside low 
starts to deepen near the Panhandles. Further north, a cold front 
is projected to move into the Northern Plains of the CONUS and 
move south through the weekend. Unfortunately, it is still too 
soon to say how far south that front will ultimately end up. Some 
of the globals drive it through the area as early as Sunday, while 
others hang it up into the leeside low and don't progress it south
until the middle parts of next week. What we do know at this time
is that increasing moisture and temperatures are expected through
the weekend and early next week.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020/
/06Z TAFs/

Light NW winds and VFR prevail this morning. Winds will gradually
veer through the next few hours, becoming SE by 15Z in North TX,
with the SE winds arriving at KACT later (after 21Z). Winds will
remain light at around 5 KT. VFR will prevail through the TAF
period, with only a FEW clouds expected around FL250-300.

Godwin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  59  91  69  77 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Waco                82  56  91  68  86 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Paris               77  52  84  64  72 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Denton              82  54  92  67  75 /   0   0   0   0   5 
McKinney            81  52  90  66  76 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Dallas              83  60  91  70  79 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Terrell             80  52  89  67  79 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Corsicana           82  56  90  68  84 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Temple              83  57  91  67  85 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Mineral Wells       83  54  95  66  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$