319 FXUS64 KFWD 130841 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 341 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Calm and clear conditions prevail in the wake of a cold front that passed Monday morning. A surface ridge extends from the Middle Mississippi Valley through the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains to the Trans-Pecos. Light northwesterly winds will gradually veer out of the northeast then southeast later today as this surface ridge moves eastward. Winds will remain light at generally less than 5 MPH. Temperatures this morning should bottom out in the low 50s for most locations, with a few spots north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area bottoming out in the upper 40s. While this is below normal for the middle of October, it is well above any records. For today, abundant sunshine should allow for high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s, which is near to a little above normal. Tuesday night, lows should be closer to seasonal normals, with most locations falling into the mid to upper 50s. Godwin && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday through Early Next Week/ The primary focus for the latter part of the week will be a cold front that will move through the area on Thursday. The front should bring cooler temperatures, gusty north winds, and will also reinforce the dry air that has been in place for the past few weeks. Wednesday will be warm to downright hot as warm advection ahead of the cold front takes hold. Locations along and west of I-35 are expected to peak in the 90s, about 12-18 degrees above normal. Gusty south winds should also prevail through the afternoon as the pressure gradient increases. Gulf moisture should be slow to return, so a saving grace for the high temperatures is that it will be a "dry heat". This will, however, increase the grass fire danger across the far western portions of the forecast area. Wednesday night should then be one of the warmest nights of the week as richer surface moisture finally gets transported into the region and mechanical mixing in the form of elevated wind speeds prevent the development of a substantial radiation inversion. The cold front is expected to make its way across the Red River around sunrise Thursday morning, then continue south through the day and finally exit our forecast area in the late afternoon. The current forecast relies heavily on the NAM's depiction of the front as it tends to handle shallow cold fronts better than the global guidance. As the front moves through, a sharp wind shift out of the north with increasing wind speeds to 20-25 mph with gusts of 35+ mph are expected for at least a few hours with the highest wind speeds generally along and west of I-35. Strong cold advection will also allow for falling post frontal temperatures, so most daily high temperatures should occur earlier in the day. The shallow nature of the front will also undercut the surface moisture transported into the region and develop a thin stratus layer overtop of the frontal surface. The cloud layer will be thickest over East and Central Texas, where some drizzle or light rain may develop out of this cloud layer. Little to no precip accumulation is expected with this activity, therefore PoPs are less than 20%. Our westernmost counties should remain cloud free through the day, therefore, another day with elevated fire weather concerns is expected despite the cooler temperatures. The stratus should clear out from north to south through the night with most everyone becoming cloud free by daybreak Friday. Continued cold advection will help drop Friday morning's lows into the 40s and 50s areawide. Friday looks to be a pretty nice day as the high pressure center moves into the region. Highs should be in the upper 60s to low 70s with clear skies and light northeast winds. Dry air, clear skies, and light winds should allow for strong radiational cooling to take place Friday night into Saturday with most rural locations dropping into the low to mid 40s while urban areas remain in the upper 40s to low 50s. The high pressure center shifts east pretty quick and allows return flow to set back up by Saturday as another leeside low starts to deepen near the Panhandles. Further north, a cold front is projected to move into the Northern Plains of the CONUS and move south through the weekend. Unfortunately, it is still too soon to say how far south that front will ultimately end up. Some of the globals drive it through the area as early as Sunday, while others hang it up into the leeside low and don't progress it south until the middle parts of next week. What we do know at this time is that increasing moisture and temperatures are expected through the weekend and early next week. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /Issued 1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020/ /06Z TAFs/ Light NW winds and VFR prevail this morning. Winds will gradually veer through the next few hours, becoming SE by 15Z in North TX, with the SE winds arriving at KACT later (after 21Z). Winds will remain light at around 5 KT. VFR will prevail through the TAF period, with only a FEW clouds expected around FL250-300. Godwin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 59 91 69 77 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 82 56 91 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 77 52 84 64 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 Denton 82 54 92 67 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 81 52 90 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 83 60 91 70 79 / 0 0 0 0 10 Terrell 80 52 89 67 79 / 0 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 82 56 90 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Temple 83 57 91 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 83 54 95 66 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$