688 
FXUS63 KICT 012326
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
626 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

The eastern trough and western ridge upper flow pattern will largely 
dominate the weather pattern for nearly the entire forecast period 
with only a few waves moving through the flow over the next 7
days. 

The coolest night of the next 7 days will occur tonight. Surface 
high pressure will be centered just to the northeast of the area 
under mostly clear skies which will allow temperatures will fall 
into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees across the area. Some higher 
thin cirrus may move in toward dawn but models differ on this. This 
mainly impacts whether patches of brief early morning frost are 
scattered vs widely scattered as low temperatures may end up being
a degree or two higher should thin cirrus remain. With consensus 
that any frost would be quite brief and scattered in nature, no 
frost headlines are anticipated.

As the high pressure shifts off to the east and lee troughing occurs 
to the west throughout the day tomorrow, expect quite breezy 
southerly flow by tomorrow afternoon. The next pair of shortwaves 
embedded in the northwest flow aloft will cruise through the region 
on Saturday driving another cold front through the area Saturday 
afternoon. A couple showers will be possible across southeast KS 
mainly through Saturday afternoon though moisture seems to be a 
limiting factor for any meaningful precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

The main eastern trough axis will shift east Sunday into Monday 
becoming centered over the Ohio Valley. While this wave shifts 
northeastward into New England, the Central Plains will remain 
under broad ridging until Monday night. Another trough will move 
through the NW flow pattern Monday into Tuesday bringing not much 
more than some gusty winds and wind shift to the area before upper
ridging quickly returns by Tuesday afternoon. Expect the large 
scale ridging to dominate the extended period continuing dry 
conditions across the region. Expect a slow warming trend 
throughout the extended reaching above normal temperatures by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs
as surface high pressure shifts east of the region tonight. This
will cause winds to switch around to the south during the morning
hours on Friday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  69  49  70 /   0   0  10  10 
Hutchinson      38  70  48  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          39  69  48  69 /   0   0  10  10 
ElDorado        39  68  49  69 /   0   0  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   40  70  50  71 /   0   0  10  10 
Russell         38  74  46  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      38  74  47  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          38  71  48  71 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       37  69  47  70 /   0   0  10   0 
Coffeyville     36  68  48  72 /   0   0  10  20 
Chanute         37  67  48  70 /   0   0  10  20 
Iola            36  67  48  70 /   0   0  10  20 
Parsons-KPPF    36  67  48  71 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...CDJ