688 FXUS63 KICT 012326 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 626 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 The eastern trough and western ridge upper flow pattern will largely dominate the weather pattern for nearly the entire forecast period with only a few waves moving through the flow over the next 7 days. The coolest night of the next 7 days will occur tonight. Surface high pressure will be centered just to the northeast of the area under mostly clear skies which will allow temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees across the area. Some higher thin cirrus may move in toward dawn but models differ on this. This mainly impacts whether patches of brief early morning frost are scattered vs widely scattered as low temperatures may end up being a degree or two higher should thin cirrus remain. With consensus that any frost would be quite brief and scattered in nature, no frost headlines are anticipated. As the high pressure shifts off to the east and lee troughing occurs to the west throughout the day tomorrow, expect quite breezy southerly flow by tomorrow afternoon. The next pair of shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow aloft will cruise through the region on Saturday driving another cold front through the area Saturday afternoon. A couple showers will be possible across southeast KS mainly through Saturday afternoon though moisture seems to be a limiting factor for any meaningful precipitation. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 The main eastern trough axis will shift east Sunday into Monday becoming centered over the Ohio Valley. While this wave shifts northeastward into New England, the Central Plains will remain under broad ridging until Monday night. Another trough will move through the NW flow pattern Monday into Tuesday bringing not much more than some gusty winds and wind shift to the area before upper ridging quickly returns by Tuesday afternoon. Expect the large scale ridging to dominate the extended period continuing dry conditions across the region. Expect a slow warming trend throughout the extended reaching above normal temperatures by mid week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs as surface high pressure shifts east of the region tonight. This will cause winds to switch around to the south during the morning hours on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 39 69 49 70 / 0 0 10 10 Hutchinson 38 70 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 39 69 48 69 / 0 0 10 10 ElDorado 39 68 49 69 / 0 0 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 40 70 50 71 / 0 0 10 10 Russell 38 74 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 38 74 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 38 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 37 69 47 70 / 0 0 10 0 Coffeyville 36 68 48 72 / 0 0 10 20 Chanute 37 67 48 70 / 0 0 10 20 Iola 36 67 48 70 / 0 0 10 20 Parsons-KPPF 36 67 48 71 / 0 0 10 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMB LONG TERM...KMB AVIATION...CDJ