481 
FXUS64 KMAF 271152
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
652 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through most of the forecast period until BLDU 
arrives with FROPA later this evening. MVFR VSBYs will enter the 
picture around 18/03Z-05Z along w/SCT low cigs. Winds are expected
to veer to the NW this afternoon w/gusts developing mainly at CNM
and HOB. Much stronger winds will accompany the frontal boundary 
as it passes through each TAF site after sunset. Gusts over 30 kts
will be common at all terminals. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

Very hot temperatures expected again today with potential record 
highs before a strong cold front arrives this evening.

A large-scale trough over the Northern Plains will help send a 
strong cold front south. Ahead of this trough an intense thermal 
ridge has developed over the area and will lead to very hot 
conditions this afternoon. Downslope, westerly winds will strengthen 
over the region with 850 mb temps >30C. This suggests near record 
highs are likely with most locations in the plains and river 
valleys over the century mark. The record high for Midland Intl 
for today is 102 set in 1977. Even though we look to stay just 
under heat advisory criteria, it is still a good idea to take 
extra precautions if you spend any time outside today.

Now on to some better news. A deepening trough over the central U.S. 
will bring a strong cold front through the region around sunset this 
evening. The front is currently just north of Amarillo and moving 
south at a pretty good clip. The front will slow this afternoon due 
to diurnal heating and then quickly push through the entire area 
overnight. While some models show light QPF over portions of the 
area, the best forcing and low level moisture will be well to our 
east. Went ahead and kept a very low PoP in tonight over the Davis 
Mountains where upslope flow could generate some light precip.
 
Extreme pressure rises behind the front tonight will make for very 
windy conditions. We could see a period of winds >30 mph across the 
plains between 10 PM CDT and 6 AM Monday morning. In addition, we 
will see high gap winds through Guadalupe Pass during this time 
period. Will upgrade the watch for a High Wind Warning for the Pass, 
but hold off on any wind advisories due to uncertainty on location 
and timing of the highest winds in the plains. Blowing dust is a 
certainty behind the front, with most of it occurring in the middle 
of the night. Visibilities should increase by sunrise as winds begin 
to decrease. 

Temperatures will fall into the 40's and 50's behind the front by 
Monday morning with with highs only in the 60's and 70's. The 
surface ridge moves east Tuesday allowing for a quick warm-up with 
temperatures back above normal by midweek. A highly amplified upper 
pattern over the CONUS will keep dry, northwest flow across our area 
through next weekend with a weak front or two possible.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critically low RH's will combine with modest 20 ft winds yielding 
elevated to near critical fire weather across western portions of 
the forecast area this afternoon and evening. A Fire Danger 
Statement has been issued for all of Southeast New Mexico and 
portions of West Texas. ERC values are still highest across 
southeast New Mexico ranging in the 70th to 90th percentile with 
most of West TX in the 25th to 50th percentile range. In addition,
the prolonged drought has kept fuels cured in most areas. A cold 
front will cause winds to shift out of the NE later this evening 
with strong gusts expected throughout the region overnight. The 
dry weather will continue into next week, but winds will be much 
lighter. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  56  73  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                      101  57  73  43 /   0  10   0   0 
Dryden                        104  61  79  52 /   0  10   0   0 
Fort Stockton                 101  55  72  47 /   0  10   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 91  49  64  46 /   0  10   0   0 
Hobbs                          97  51  69  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          94  49  68  38 /   0  10   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport          101  56  73  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                        101  55  73  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                          103  57  75  45 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MDT Monday 
     for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

24/29