481 FXUS64 KMAF 271152 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 652 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020 .DISCUSSION... Please see 12Z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through most of the forecast period until BLDU arrives with FROPA later this evening. MVFR VSBYs will enter the picture around 18/03Z-05Z along w/SCT low cigs. Winds are expected to veer to the NW this afternoon w/gusts developing mainly at CNM and HOB. Much stronger winds will accompany the frontal boundary as it passes through each TAF site after sunset. Gusts over 30 kts will be common at all terminals. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/ DISCUSSION... Very hot temperatures expected again today with potential record highs before a strong cold front arrives this evening. A large-scale trough over the Northern Plains will help send a strong cold front south. Ahead of this trough an intense thermal ridge has developed over the area and will lead to very hot conditions this afternoon. Downslope, westerly winds will strengthen over the region with 850 mb temps >30C. This suggests near record highs are likely with most locations in the plains and river valleys over the century mark. The record high for Midland Intl for today is 102 set in 1977. Even though we look to stay just under heat advisory criteria, it is still a good idea to take extra precautions if you spend any time outside today. Now on to some better news. A deepening trough over the central U.S. will bring a strong cold front through the region around sunset this evening. The front is currently just north of Amarillo and moving south at a pretty good clip. The front will slow this afternoon due to diurnal heating and then quickly push through the entire area overnight. While some models show light QPF over portions of the area, the best forcing and low level moisture will be well to our east. Went ahead and kept a very low PoP in tonight over the Davis Mountains where upslope flow could generate some light precip. Extreme pressure rises behind the front tonight will make for very windy conditions. We could see a period of winds >30 mph across the plains between 10 PM CDT and 6 AM Monday morning. In addition, we will see high gap winds through Guadalupe Pass during this time period. Will upgrade the watch for a High Wind Warning for the Pass, but hold off on any wind advisories due to uncertainty on location and timing of the highest winds in the plains. Blowing dust is a certainty behind the front, with most of it occurring in the middle of the night. Visibilities should increase by sunrise as winds begin to decrease. Temperatures will fall into the 40's and 50's behind the front by Monday morning with with highs only in the 60's and 70's. The surface ridge moves east Tuesday allowing for a quick warm-up with temperatures back above normal by midweek. A highly amplified upper pattern over the CONUS will keep dry, northwest flow across our area through next weekend with a weak front or two possible. FIRE WEATHER... Critically low RH's will combine with modest 20 ft winds yielding elevated to near critical fire weather across western portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of Southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas. ERC values are still highest across southeast New Mexico ranging in the 70th to 90th percentile with most of West TX in the 25th to 50th percentile range. In addition, the prolonged drought has kept fuels cured in most areas. A cold front will cause winds to shift out of the NE later this evening with strong gusts expected throughout the region overnight. The dry weather will continue into next week, but winds will be much lighter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 56 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 101 57 73 43 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 104 61 79 52 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 101 55 72 47 / 0 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 91 49 64 46 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 97 51 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 94 49 68 38 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 101 56 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 101 55 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 103 57 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MDT Monday for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. && $$ 24/29