435 
FXUS64 KCRP 191046 CCA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
508 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

Looking to be a dry start for the area as we lie under subsidence 
and ridging aloft, with dry continental surface winds will keep PWAT 
values down below 1.5" through the day today. Partly cloudy skies 
with high temps in the upper 80s approaching 90 are expected 
throughout the CWA. Winds will be breezy at times out of the north 
northeast. Meanwhile, the NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Beta 
slowly strengthen and make a westward shift towards the western Gulf 
Coast. Rainbands from Beta will approach the offshore waters through 
the day and slowly move closer to the coast throughout the night. 
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from 
the Coastal Plains to the coast respectively Saturday night. 
Overnight lows will range in the mid 60s out west, to the upper 60s 
near the coast.

The NHC has Beta continue to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane 
and travel westward Sunday with max sustained winds of 65 knots, 
steered by the large surface high settling in over the eastern 
CONUS. Rain chances will increase through the day on Sunday from 
scattered to numerous as rainbands continue to stretch further 
westward in response to Beta's track. Greatest inland coverage is 
expected over the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. Highs on Sunday 
are expected to be around 80 near the coast, to the mid 80s out 
west. 

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect until 4PM this 
afternoon. Due to the approach and gradual strengthening of Beta, a 
Hurricane Watch is in effect north of Port Aransas and a Tropical 
Storm Watch is in effect south of Port Aransas. In addition, a Storm 
Surge Watch has been issued for 2-4 feet inundation as winds and 
seas are expected to increase. There is also a high risk of rip 
currents today through Sunday night, which will likely need to be 
extended. 

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...

Models are a bit more in agreement with the westward track slowly 
approaching the Middle Texas Coast into Tuesday. There still lies 
moderate uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Whether Beta goes inland over 
the Middle Texas Coast, or stay near the Texas Coast over the waters 
moving northeast along the coast through Wednesday due to a 
shortwave trough providing the steering. The NHC has the track stay 
just offshore early Tuesday south of Matagorda Bay and travel 
northeast just offshore the Gulf Coast, weakening to a Tropical 
Storm as it approaches the Louisiana coast early Thursday.

Rain chances remain scattered over the Brush Country and numerous 
closer to the coast Sunday night through Tuesday. However, in 
accordance with the northeastward trajectory following Tuesday, 
South Texas will be on the drier west side of the system and rain 
chances decrease to scattered over the eastern counties on 
Wednesday. With drier offshore air returning, rain chances decrease 
to just isolated through the end of the work week. WPC's Storm Total 
QPF for Saturday through Wednesday night ranges from just 0.5" out 
west to 4.0-7.0" along the coast. Strongest winds and greatest 
rainfall are expected to be from Sunday night through Tuesday. 

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to strong north to northeast winds will continue into early 
next week. Wave heights will rapidly build as Tropical Storm Beta 
approaches the area, with seas reaching near 15 feet by late 
tonight. Periods could approach up to 11 seconds. A Small Craft 
Advisory remains in effect for both winds and hazardous seas through 
this afternoon. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for waters south 
of Port Aransas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for waters north of 
Port Aransas. Tropical Storm Beta is over the west central Gulf of 
Mexico and is forecast to move toward the north through the morning 
then toward the west this afternoon, strengthen to a Hurricane 
Sunday, then move toward the northeast late Monday night along and 
just offshore the Texas Coast. This tropical cyclone is expected to 
generate heavy rainfall, dangerously high seas, and increase the 
risk of rip currents and coastal flooding Sunday through
Wednesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  69  79  71  80  /  10  50  80  80  80 
Victoria          88  67  79  70  78  /  10  40  70  70  90 
Laredo            87  64  86  70  79  /   0  20  50  50  50 
Alice             88  67  80  70  80  /  10  40  70  70  80 
Rockport          88  68  80  74  82  /  20  50  80  90  80 
Cotulla           89  64  86  70  80  /   0  20  50  50  60 
Kingsville        88  68  79  70  80  /  10  40  70  70  80 
Navy Corpus       87  70  80  74  81  /  20  50  80  80  80 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Coastal Kleberg...
     Coastal Nueces...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...
     Nueces Islands. 

     Storm Surge Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands...
     Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...
     Coastal Kleberg...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. 

     Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands...
     Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...
     Coastal Refugio. 

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening For the following 
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg 
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways 
     from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Coastal waters from 
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin 
     Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM. 

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port 
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay 
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from 
     Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Port 
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from 
     Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. 

&&

$$

EMF/94...SHORT TERM
EMF/94...LONG TERM