435 FXUS64 KCRP 191046 CCA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 508 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... Looking to be a dry start for the area as we lie under subsidence and ridging aloft, with dry continental surface winds will keep PWAT values down below 1.5" through the day today. Partly cloudy skies with high temps in the upper 80s approaching 90 are expected throughout the CWA. Winds will be breezy at times out of the north northeast. Meanwhile, the NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Beta slowly strengthen and make a westward shift towards the western Gulf Coast. Rainbands from Beta will approach the offshore waters through the day and slowly move closer to the coast throughout the night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from the Coastal Plains to the coast respectively Saturday night. Overnight lows will range in the mid 60s out west, to the upper 60s near the coast. The NHC has Beta continue to strengthen into a category 1 hurricane and travel westward Sunday with max sustained winds of 65 knots, steered by the large surface high settling in over the eastern CONUS. Rain chances will increase through the day on Sunday from scattered to numerous as rainbands continue to stretch further westward in response to Beta's track. Greatest inland coverage is expected over the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. Highs on Sunday are expected to be around 80 near the coast, to the mid 80s out west. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect until 4PM this afternoon. Due to the approach and gradual strengthening of Beta, a Hurricane Watch is in effect north of Port Aransas and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect south of Port Aransas. In addition, a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for 2-4 feet inundation as winds and seas are expected to increase. There is also a high risk of rip currents today through Sunday night, which will likely need to be extended. && .LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)... Models are a bit more in agreement with the westward track slowly approaching the Middle Texas Coast into Tuesday. There still lies moderate uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Whether Beta goes inland over the Middle Texas Coast, or stay near the Texas Coast over the waters moving northeast along the coast through Wednesday due to a shortwave trough providing the steering. The NHC has the track stay just offshore early Tuesday south of Matagorda Bay and travel northeast just offshore the Gulf Coast, weakening to a Tropical Storm as it approaches the Louisiana coast early Thursday. Rain chances remain scattered over the Brush Country and numerous closer to the coast Sunday night through Tuesday. However, in accordance with the northeastward trajectory following Tuesday, South Texas will be on the drier west side of the system and rain chances decrease to scattered over the eastern counties on Wednesday. With drier offshore air returning, rain chances decrease to just isolated through the end of the work week. WPC's Storm Total QPF for Saturday through Wednesday night ranges from just 0.5" out west to 4.0-7.0" along the coast. Strongest winds and greatest rainfall are expected to be from Sunday night through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Moderate to strong north to northeast winds will continue into early next week. Wave heights will rapidly build as Tropical Storm Beta approaches the area, with seas reaching near 15 feet by late tonight. Periods could approach up to 11 seconds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for both winds and hazardous seas through this afternoon. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for waters south of Port Aransas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for waters north of Port Aransas. Tropical Storm Beta is over the west central Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to move toward the north through the morning then toward the west this afternoon, strengthen to a Hurricane Sunday, then move toward the northeast late Monday night along and just offshore the Texas Coast. This tropical cyclone is expected to generate heavy rainfall, dangerously high seas, and increase the risk of rip currents and coastal flooding Sunday through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 69 79 71 80 / 10 50 80 80 80 Victoria 88 67 79 70 78 / 10 40 70 70 90 Laredo 87 64 86 70 79 / 0 20 50 50 50 Alice 88 67 80 70 80 / 10 40 70 70 80 Rockport 88 68 80 74 82 / 20 50 80 90 80 Cotulla 89 64 86 70 80 / 0 20 50 50 60 Kingsville 88 68 79 70 80 / 10 40 70 70 80 Navy Corpus 87 70 80 74 81 / 20 50 80 80 80 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Coastal Kleberg... Coastal Nueces...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands... Nueces Islands. Storm Surge Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun... Coastal Kleberg...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Aransas Islands... Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun... Coastal Refugio. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...Tropical Storm Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ EMF/94...SHORT TERM EMF/94...LONG TERM