933 
FXUS64 KMAF 141726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain showers will continue this afternoon and may impact KCNM, 
KPEQ, and KFST. Will include a tempo MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in rain 
showers through 14/22z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected at 
the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 
hours.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Showers have developed this morning that may impact FST/PEQ during
the start of the forecast period, thus, have included TEMPO SHRA 
mention, though trends will need to be monitored for potential 
inclusion of TS if necessary. Intermittent MVFR ceilings are also 
possible at all terminals this morning, prior to prevailing VFR 
conditions returning around 15Z. Winds will generally remain
light, varying between the NE and SE through the forecast period.
While additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
confidence in timing/location was too low to include mention at
this time. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/ 

DISCUSSION...
Despite the presence of a mid-level trof surface ridging will 
increase today bringing with it lower Td air. As such SB instability 
will be greatly limited, even across the swrn areas of the CWFA and 
accordingly we will continue to downplay the PoPs. Consensus over
the last few days is that today will be cooler and this makes 
sense per the presence of trof aloft/clouds/surface ridging. 
Aforementioned dry air will make for a pleasant morning Tue with 
widespread lows 55-60. The presence of the mid-level trof/surface 
ridging will be less Tue and temperatures will start to increase 
some, but still dry. Aforementioned mid-level trof will attempt to
deepen some Wed extending farther swwd thru far W TX, but mstr 
profile is still dry with about a 2C cap that will not be 
overcome. By Thur the said trof will have edged just e of the area
as the mid-level ridge moves into the 4 Corners area with a 
deeper/colder mid-level trof moving into the Pacific NW. Meanwhile
a push of surface high pressure will make it into W TX, possibly 
as early as Thur AM and hold into Sat AM. The result will be 
mostly dry conditions with temps near seasonal. Thereafter the 
mid-level ridge will flatten and get pushed s resulting in little 
sensible change. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  83  60  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       59  85  59  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         63  85  64  89 /  10   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  59  83  60  88 /  10   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 57  78  57  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          57  83  58  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          51  80  51  85 /  20  10  10  10 
Midland Intl Airport           59  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         59  84  61  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           60  85  60  91 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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