933 FXUS64 KMAF 141726 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Rain showers will continue this afternoon and may impact KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST. Will include a tempo MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in rain showers through 14/22z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. 12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/ DISCUSSION... Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Showers have developed this morning that may impact FST/PEQ during the start of the forecast period, thus, have included TEMPO SHRA mention, though trends will need to be monitored for potential inclusion of TS if necessary. Intermittent MVFR ceilings are also possible at all terminals this morning, prior to prevailing VFR conditions returning around 15Z. Winds will generally remain light, varying between the NE and SE through the forecast period. While additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, confidence in timing/location was too low to include mention at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/ DISCUSSION... Despite the presence of a mid-level trof surface ridging will increase today bringing with it lower Td air. As such SB instability will be greatly limited, even across the swrn areas of the CWFA and accordingly we will continue to downplay the PoPs. Consensus over the last few days is that today will be cooler and this makes sense per the presence of trof aloft/clouds/surface ridging. Aforementioned dry air will make for a pleasant morning Tue with widespread lows 55-60. The presence of the mid-level trof/surface ridging will be less Tue and temperatures will start to increase some, but still dry. Aforementioned mid-level trof will attempt to deepen some Wed extending farther swwd thru far W TX, but mstr profile is still dry with about a 2C cap that will not be overcome. By Thur the said trof will have edged just e of the area as the mid-level ridge moves into the 4 Corners area with a deeper/colder mid-level trof moving into the Pacific NW. Meanwhile a push of surface high pressure will make it into W TX, possibly as early as Thur AM and hold into Sat AM. The result will be mostly dry conditions with temps near seasonal. Thereafter the mid-level ridge will flatten and get pushed s resulting in little sensible change. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 83 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 59 85 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 85 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 59 83 60 88 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 57 78 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 57 83 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 51 80 51 85 / 20 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 59 84 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 84 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 60 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 49/84