011 
FXUS63 KLMK 140138
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Latest surface observations show the frontal boundary draped NE-SW 
across central KY. Satellite shows clearing behind the boundary 
while radar shows rain exiting east out of eastern KY. Drier air 
will be moving in from the NW overnight, so not expecting much in 
the way of dense fog behind the boundary. But ahead of the front, 
dew points remain in the upper 60s to low 70s and reports of fog 
have already been relayed from around Liberty in Casey County. Have 
updated grids to account for fog development in our SW CWA. Flood 
Warning also remains in effect for Casey and Lincoln until 1145 PM 
EDT as roads continue to be closed due to high water as well as 
rises on the Green River. Otherwise, current forecast is on track 
with only minor near term adjustments made. Updated products 
forthcoming.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Flash Flooding in Casey and Lincoln Counties should start to come to 
an end shortly. A few spots in those two counties have had close to 
6 inches of rain in 24 hours based on radar estimates that match up 
closely to a Kentucky Mesonet measurement of just over 3.5 inches in 
Casey County. A much larger area in surrounding counties, running 
southwest to northeast, averaged 2 to 3 inches, but there is good 
news. The cold front that is pushing this rain out is currently 
along a line from Logan to Harrison Counties in Kentucky. The front 
will continue moving to the southeast. This evening around 0z 
everything but a single stray shower here or there will be out of 
our CWA. 

Through the rest of the night, as high pressure builds in from the 
northwest, skies will go clear, but it's going to take all night to 
clear out places in the Cumberland, Russell, and Clinton County 
area. This will give areas to the northwest more time to cool after 
removing the cloud blanket. Lows in southern Indiana will likely 
fall to the upper 50 and temperatures will taper warmer towards the 
south/southeast where south central Kentucky can expect to see the 
mid to upper 60s for lows in the morning. 

Expect a beautiful day tomorrow. Clear skies will allow lots of 
sunshine, but with the center of the surface high sliding over the 
Great Lakes tomorrow, winds will stay out of the northeast, limiting 
diurnal warming. With this in mind limited high temperatures 
tomorrow to the mid to upper 70 across the Bluegrass, upper 70s 
across southern Indiana, and low 80s west of I-65 and near the 
Tennessee border in central Kentucky

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Mild and dry wx continues through Tuesday under dry NW flow aloft 
and cool high pressure over the Great Lakes. By Tue night the high 
will retreat to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England coast, 
starting to open the door for moist return flow and any impulses 
coming off of Sally on the Gulf Coast. 

The latter half of the week will be a bit unsettled as Sally weakens 
to a remnant low and is picked up in the westerlies. Our sensible wx 
will depend highly on just when and where that happens. Decent model 
consensus keeping the bulk of Sally's precip across the Tennessee 
Valley and the Deep South, but still could see heavy rain across 
at least south-central Kentucky, where totals could push 2-3 inches. 
Heaviest rainfall will be late Wed night and Thu, but confidence in 
the timing is limited so rain chances will continue through Friday. 

Eastern CONUS upper trof and 1032 mb high pressure trying to build 
into the Great Lakes will bring more fall weather for next weekend. 
Expect dry weather and temps solidly below normal Friday night 
through Sunday, though model divergence leaves the question of how 
much below normal.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Expect mostly VFR conditions throughout this forecast period. Latest 
surface analysis shows the rather washed out frontal boundary draped 
NE-SW across central KY with clearing skies in its wake. Drier air 
advecting into the region behind the front should keep any dense fog 
from forming. But with all of the recent rainfall and available 
surface moisture, wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy fog. Felt 
most confident with mentioning MVFR VIS at BWG, but kept other sites 
VFR. Expect gusty NE winds Monday afternoon in response to a 
tightening gradient between TS Sally and surface high pressure over 
the Great Lakes.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...CG
Short Term...KDW
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...CG