011 FXUS63 KLMK 140138 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 938 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 .Forecast Update... Issued at 937 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Latest surface observations show the frontal boundary draped NE-SW across central KY. Satellite shows clearing behind the boundary while radar shows rain exiting east out of eastern KY. Drier air will be moving in from the NW overnight, so not expecting much in the way of dense fog behind the boundary. But ahead of the front, dew points remain in the upper 60s to low 70s and reports of fog have already been relayed from around Liberty in Casey County. Have updated grids to account for fog development in our SW CWA. Flood Warning also remains in effect for Casey and Lincoln until 1145 PM EDT as roads continue to be closed due to high water as well as rises on the Green River. Otherwise, current forecast is on track with only minor near term adjustments made. Updated products forthcoming. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Flash Flooding in Casey and Lincoln Counties should start to come to an end shortly. A few spots in those two counties have had close to 6 inches of rain in 24 hours based on radar estimates that match up closely to a Kentucky Mesonet measurement of just over 3.5 inches in Casey County. A much larger area in surrounding counties, running southwest to northeast, averaged 2 to 3 inches, but there is good news. The cold front that is pushing this rain out is currently along a line from Logan to Harrison Counties in Kentucky. The front will continue moving to the southeast. This evening around 0z everything but a single stray shower here or there will be out of our CWA. Through the rest of the night, as high pressure builds in from the northwest, skies will go clear, but it's going to take all night to clear out places in the Cumberland, Russell, and Clinton County area. This will give areas to the northwest more time to cool after removing the cloud blanket. Lows in southern Indiana will likely fall to the upper 50 and temperatures will taper warmer towards the south/southeast where south central Kentucky can expect to see the mid to upper 60s for lows in the morning. Expect a beautiful day tomorrow. Clear skies will allow lots of sunshine, but with the center of the surface high sliding over the Great Lakes tomorrow, winds will stay out of the northeast, limiting diurnal warming. With this in mind limited high temperatures tomorrow to the mid to upper 70 across the Bluegrass, upper 70s across southern Indiana, and low 80s west of I-65 and near the Tennessee border in central Kentucky .Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Mild and dry wx continues through Tuesday under dry NW flow aloft and cool high pressure over the Great Lakes. By Tue night the high will retreat to the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England coast, starting to open the door for moist return flow and any impulses coming off of Sally on the Gulf Coast. The latter half of the week will be a bit unsettled as Sally weakens to a remnant low and is picked up in the westerlies. Our sensible wx will depend highly on just when and where that happens. Decent model consensus keeping the bulk of Sally's precip across the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South, but still could see heavy rain across at least south-central Kentucky, where totals could push 2-3 inches. Heaviest rainfall will be late Wed night and Thu, but confidence in the timing is limited so rain chances will continue through Friday. Eastern CONUS upper trof and 1032 mb high pressure trying to build into the Great Lakes will bring more fall weather for next weekend. Expect dry weather and temps solidly below normal Friday night through Sunday, though model divergence leaves the question of how much below normal. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Expect mostly VFR conditions throughout this forecast period. Latest surface analysis shows the rather washed out frontal boundary draped NE-SW across central KY with clearing skies in its wake. Drier air advecting into the region behind the front should keep any dense fog from forming. But with all of the recent rainfall and available surface moisture, wouldn't be surprised to see some patchy fog. Felt most confident with mentioning MVFR VIS at BWG, but kept other sites VFR. Expect gusty NE winds Monday afternoon in response to a tightening gradient between TS Sally and surface high pressure over the Great Lakes. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...CG Short Term...KDW Long Term...RAS Aviation...CG