910 
FXUS64 KSJT 100920
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
420 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday) 
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020

On water vapor satellite, an upper level low was spinning over the 
Four Corners region, which is continuing to pump plentiful mid and 
upper level moisture into West Central Texas. Meanwhile, plenty of 
moisture has come into the surface and low levels from the cold 
front which has finally pushed through most of the Northwest Hill 
Country, leaving behind significantly colder air. As of 1 pm, 
temperatures were only in the mid 40s to low 50s across the Big 
Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, while 
temperatures in the Heartland were in the mid 50s and temperatures 
in the Northwest Hill Country were in the upper 50s to low 60s. 
Radar shows that the stratiform rain is decreasing in intensity as 
it continues to move from west to east across the forecast area. By 
late this afternoon, the short-wave trough in the southwest flow 
aloft (that helped spawn the widespread heavy rainfall we saw this 
morning) will have moved off to the northeast, leaving us with a 
potential lull in rainfall activity that will likely continue 
through the evening. However, another short-wave is expected to move 
up from the south late tonight and Thursday morning, combining with 
continued high moisture content (precipitable water of 1.8-2 inches) 
to bring another round of moderate to heavy showers to our area, 
bringing potentially another 0.5-2 inches of rainfall. In the I-1O 
corridor region: with the widespread 1-4 inch rain amounts that have 
already occurred, and the potential for more heavy rain late 
tonight, in addition to the terrain being more conducive to flash 
flooding, the Flash Flood Watch for the I-10 corridor counties has 
been extended through 1 PM Thursday. After the short-wave moves by, 
expect decreasing chances for showers/storms Thursday afternoon. 

With the cold air mass in place, expect lows tonight down into the 
upper 40s to mid 50s. With the expected overcast skies and cool post-
frontal northerly winds continuing, expect another day of much 
cooler than normal temperatures Thursday with highs in the upper 50s 
in the northwest counties to mid 60s in the southeast counties. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020

The lingering upper low across the Four Corners region will 
finally trek northeastward on Friday, with heavy rain drawing to 
a close across the area. We may still see a few lingering showers 
mainly across the south, but the weekend should be mostly dry. 
Temperatures will be on the rebound for the weekend, with highs 
climbing back into the mid to upper 80s. A ridge builds back in 
over the southwest for early to mid week next week, keeping most 
of the area dry. Southern parts of the forecast area could 
continue to see a few diurnally driven showers, but no strong 
forcing seen for any more widespread precipitation. Temperatures 
will remain seasonal through the extended with highs in the 80s 
and lows in the 60s.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020

MVFR/IFR ceilings continue across the terminals early this
morning. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR across all 
terminals overnight, with visibilities generally 3 to 5 SM.
Showers are beginning to develop just south of KJCT and KSOA
and should see an increase in coverage, as activity spreads
north across the terminals throughout the morning hours.
Models show convection decreasing by afternoon, with mainly
IFR ceilings persisting. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 59  54  73  61 /  60  30  20   5 
San Angelo 	 59  55  75  62 /  70  40  40   5 
Junction 	 63  57  80  63 /  70  30  20   5 
Brownwood 	 63  57  77  61 /  60  20  10   0 
Sweetwater 	 57  53  73  62 /  60  40  30   5 
Ozona      	 59  53  75  63 /  70  40  40  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Crockett-
Kimble-Mason-Menard-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24