910 FXUS64 KSJT 100920 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 420 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2020 On water vapor satellite, an upper level low was spinning over the Four Corners region, which is continuing to pump plentiful mid and upper level moisture into West Central Texas. Meanwhile, plenty of moisture has come into the surface and low levels from the cold front which has finally pushed through most of the Northwest Hill Country, leaving behind significantly colder air. As of 1 pm, temperatures were only in the mid 40s to low 50s across the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, while temperatures in the Heartland were in the mid 50s and temperatures in the Northwest Hill Country were in the upper 50s to low 60s. Radar shows that the stratiform rain is decreasing in intensity as it continues to move from west to east across the forecast area. By late this afternoon, the short-wave trough in the southwest flow aloft (that helped spawn the widespread heavy rainfall we saw this morning) will have moved off to the northeast, leaving us with a potential lull in rainfall activity that will likely continue through the evening. However, another short-wave is expected to move up from the south late tonight and Thursday morning, combining with continued high moisture content (precipitable water of 1.8-2 inches) to bring another round of moderate to heavy showers to our area, bringing potentially another 0.5-2 inches of rainfall. In the I-1O corridor region: with the widespread 1-4 inch rain amounts that have already occurred, and the potential for more heavy rain late tonight, in addition to the terrain being more conducive to flash flooding, the Flash Flood Watch for the I-10 corridor counties has been extended through 1 PM Thursday. After the short-wave moves by, expect decreasing chances for showers/storms Thursday afternoon. With the cold air mass in place, expect lows tonight down into the upper 40s to mid 50s. With the expected overcast skies and cool post- frontal northerly winds continuing, expect another day of much cooler than normal temperatures Thursday with highs in the upper 50s in the northwest counties to mid 60s in the southeast counties. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 The lingering upper low across the Four Corners region will finally trek northeastward on Friday, with heavy rain drawing to a close across the area. We may still see a few lingering showers mainly across the south, but the weekend should be mostly dry. Temperatures will be on the rebound for the weekend, with highs climbing back into the mid to upper 80s. A ridge builds back in over the southwest for early to mid week next week, keeping most of the area dry. Southern parts of the forecast area could continue to see a few diurnally driven showers, but no strong forcing seen for any more widespread precipitation. Temperatures will remain seasonal through the extended with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. 08 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 MVFR/IFR ceilings continue across the terminals early this morning. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR across all terminals overnight, with visibilities generally 3 to 5 SM. Showers are beginning to develop just south of KJCT and KSOA and should see an increase in coverage, as activity spreads north across the terminals throughout the morning hours. Models show convection decreasing by afternoon, with mainly IFR ceilings persisting. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 59 54 73 61 / 60 30 20 5 San Angelo 59 55 75 62 / 70 40 40 5 Junction 63 57 80 63 / 70 30 20 5 Brownwood 63 57 77 61 / 60 20 10 0 Sweetwater 57 53 73 62 / 60 40 30 5 Ozona 59 53 75 63 / 70 40 40 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Crockett- Kimble-Mason-Menard-Schleicher-Sutton. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...24