425 
FXUS64 KMOB 302323
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Satellite and surface observations indicate
scattered to broken clouds over the central Gulf coast, with bases
of broken cloud cover at high levels. Away from scattered tsra 
producing brief strong wind gusts, lower bases and vsby as they 
move east, north of US Highway 84 this evening, VFR conditions 
expected tonight. Light southwest winds. late in the night to 
around daybreak Monday, scattered convective development over the 
near shore waters and Gulf coast brings potential of MVFR/perhaps
IFR bases to the coastal terminals. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Mainly westerly flow 
aloft will continue through the near term with a weak embedded 
shortwave progressing through the Ohio river valley. With this 
subtle feature and the lingering high moisture values across the 
area storms will remain likely through the period. This morning, a
thunderstorm complex developed over the Gulf waters and produced 
an outflow boundary that has quickly surged northward. Along and 
ahead of this boundary, showers and a few rumbles of thunder will 
be possible through this afternoon. The best chances will be along
and north of the highway 84 corridor where destabilization is 
able to occur and the outflow boundary can provide an area of 
surface lift. I think locations near the coast might see lower 
chances this afternoon given the outflow likely stabilized the 
environment and cloud cover will keep the area from destabilizing.
A few showers and storms cannot be ruled out but I feel chances 
will be lower and the new rain chances reflect this area. Storms 
will dissipate and move off to the east tonight as the first upper
shortwave pushes east. 

Monday will probably feel like Déjà Vu as storms will probably 
start over the coastal waters and maybe coastal areas before 
moving inland throughout the afternoon. Rain chances will remain 
higher as the moisture continues to linger around and the second 
shortwave moves through the upper pattern. I honestly would not be
shocked to see storms a little earlier in the day with less of a 
severe potential given the lack of destabilization. Storms will 
continue inland throughout the afternoon and likely linger into 
the evening hours. 

Temperatures will remain mild with highs probably struggling to
get out of the 80s except where clouds are a little less common
and sunshine might be enough to approach 90 degrees. This will
likely hold true tomorrow and the temperatures could range from
near 80 degrees to 90 degrees depending on the timing of the rain
and how much cloud cover is left behind. The never-ending HIGH 
risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Monday as 
seas struggle to come down in the wake of last weeks tropical 
cyclones. BB/03

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Through 
Tuesday night, a positively tilted upper trof extending from the 
north central states to the 4 Corners area cuts off a shortwave trof 
near the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle area while the remainder of the 
upper trof broadens while moving to the Great Lakes region.  An 
upper ridge over the northern Gulf meanwhile shifts northward to be 
oriented mainly along the northern Gulf coast, and remains close to 
this position through Wednesday night as the shortwave trof advances 
slowly into Oklahoma/central Texas and weakens.  A surface ridge 
over the northern Gulf maintains a moist low level southwesterly 
surface flow over the area, but model soundings show increasing 
evidence of subsidence associated with the upper ridge through the 
period. Given this trend, have opted to trend lower for rain
chances Tuesday into Wednesday, with slight chance to chance pops
on Tuesday followed by mainly dry conditions on Wednesday. Highs
on Tuesday range from around 90 at the coast to the lower 90s
elsewhere, then highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the lower 
90s with some mid 90s possible well inland. Lows range from the 
lower to mid 70s except for upper 70s possible at the immediate 
coast. Heat index values on Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly 
102-107, and some locations may meet Heat Advisory criteria which 
will need to be monitored. A high risk current risk is in effect 
Monday night followed by a moderate risk through the remainder of 
the period. /29

EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper ridge
oriented along much of the northern Gulf coast is expected to
strengthen somewhat through the period as the weakening shortwave
trof initially over Oklahoma/central Texas is absorbed into an
upper trof which progresses across the northeastern states. A
Canadian surface low brings a surface trof southward into the 
southeast states on Thursday which moves into the forecast area
Thursday night. The surface trof is expected to linger over the
forecast area through Friday, with some vestiges potentially
lingering even into Saturday and even Sunday before dissipating. 
For Thursday, have opted to have slight chance pops over roughly 
the eastern half of the area where better deep layer moisture will
be present, then scattered convective development is expected 
each following day with the surface trof in the area. Heat index
values of 102-107 are expected Thursday and Friday when trend
slightly lower to 100-105 by Sunday. /29

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly to southwesterly flow will
continue through Tuesday. Moderate seas over the next few days will 
subside by early next week. Scattered showers and storms will be 
possible over the Gulf waters during the mornings before moving to 
the nearshore waters and bays during the afternoon. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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