425 FXUS64 KMOB 302323 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 623 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Satellite and surface observations indicate scattered to broken clouds over the central Gulf coast, with bases of broken cloud cover at high levels. Away from scattered tsra producing brief strong wind gusts, lower bases and vsby as they move east, north of US Highway 84 this evening, VFR conditions expected tonight. Light southwest winds. late in the night to around daybreak Monday, scattered convective development over the near shore waters and Gulf coast brings potential of MVFR/perhaps IFR bases to the coastal terminals. /10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Monday/...Mainly westerly flow aloft will continue through the near term with a weak embedded shortwave progressing through the Ohio river valley. With this subtle feature and the lingering high moisture values across the area storms will remain likely through the period. This morning, a thunderstorm complex developed over the Gulf waters and produced an outflow boundary that has quickly surged northward. Along and ahead of this boundary, showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible through this afternoon. The best chances will be along and north of the highway 84 corridor where destabilization is able to occur and the outflow boundary can provide an area of surface lift. I think locations near the coast might see lower chances this afternoon given the outflow likely stabilized the environment and cloud cover will keep the area from destabilizing. A few showers and storms cannot be ruled out but I feel chances will be lower and the new rain chances reflect this area. Storms will dissipate and move off to the east tonight as the first upper shortwave pushes east. Monday will probably feel like Déjà Vu as storms will probably start over the coastal waters and maybe coastal areas before moving inland throughout the afternoon. Rain chances will remain higher as the moisture continues to linger around and the second shortwave moves through the upper pattern. I honestly would not be shocked to see storms a little earlier in the day with less of a severe potential given the lack of destabilization. Storms will continue inland throughout the afternoon and likely linger into the evening hours. Temperatures will remain mild with highs probably struggling to get out of the 80s except where clouds are a little less common and sunshine might be enough to approach 90 degrees. This will likely hold true tomorrow and the temperatures could range from near 80 degrees to 90 degrees depending on the timing of the rain and how much cloud cover is left behind. The never-ending HIGH risk of rip currents is expected to continue through Monday as seas struggle to come down in the wake of last weeks tropical cyclones. BB/03 SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Through Tuesday night, a positively tilted upper trof extending from the north central states to the 4 Corners area cuts off a shortwave trof near the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle area while the remainder of the upper trof broadens while moving to the Great Lakes region. An upper ridge over the northern Gulf meanwhile shifts northward to be oriented mainly along the northern Gulf coast, and remains close to this position through Wednesday night as the shortwave trof advances slowly into Oklahoma/central Texas and weakens. A surface ridge over the northern Gulf maintains a moist low level southwesterly surface flow over the area, but model soundings show increasing evidence of subsidence associated with the upper ridge through the period. Given this trend, have opted to trend lower for rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday, with slight chance to chance pops on Tuesday followed by mainly dry conditions on Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday range from around 90 at the coast to the lower 90s elsewhere, then highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the lower 90s with some mid 90s possible well inland. Lows range from the lower to mid 70s except for upper 70s possible at the immediate coast. Heat index values on Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly 102-107, and some locations may meet Heat Advisory criteria which will need to be monitored. A high risk current risk is in effect Monday night followed by a moderate risk through the remainder of the period. /29 EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper ridge oriented along much of the northern Gulf coast is expected to strengthen somewhat through the period as the weakening shortwave trof initially over Oklahoma/central Texas is absorbed into an upper trof which progresses across the northeastern states. A Canadian surface low brings a surface trof southward into the southeast states on Thursday which moves into the forecast area Thursday night. The surface trof is expected to linger over the forecast area through Friday, with some vestiges potentially lingering even into Saturday and even Sunday before dissipating. For Thursday, have opted to have slight chance pops over roughly the eastern half of the area where better deep layer moisture will be present, then scattered convective development is expected each following day with the surface trof in the area. Heat index values of 102-107 are expected Thursday and Friday when trend slightly lower to 100-105 by Sunday. /29 MARINE...A light to moderate southerly to southwesterly flow will continue through Tuesday. Moderate seas over the next few days will subside by early next week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible over the Gulf waters during the mornings before moving to the nearshore waters and bays during the afternoon. BB/03 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob