424 
FXUS62 KJAX 221950
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
350 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020


.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...Chance of isolated strong to
severe storms will continue this evening through Sunday afternoon as
strong vertical wind shear persists due to strong sw winds aloft.
A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place with high rain 
chances continuing...more numerous in the afternoon/evening 
hours. Temperatures will be near average levels with southeasterly
winds increasing on Sunday as high pressure builds to the north
tightening the pressure gradient.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday night through Tuesday Night]...Southeastly
flow will prevail with low level ridge axis just north of the 
area. Mid-level ridge will build into the area from the east 
which will steer Tropical Storm Laura wnw into the Gulf fo Mexico.
Vertical wind shear will decrease over the area as moisture 
remains high along with warming temperatures aloft. This will 
lower the severe potential to isolated pulse storms...with locally
heavy rainfall threat remaining a threat. Showers and possibly 
thunderstorms will be scattered near the east coast in the morning
hours...becoming more numerous inland during the afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...Mid-level ridge axis
will be across the area Wednesday and Thursday with surface ridge
just to the north. This will bring warming and drying conditions aloft
with a decrease in rain chances. A southeasterly steering flow 
will result in scattered convection mainly over inland areas with 
highest coverage over western zones by late afternoon/evening. The
ridge at surface and aloft will shift to the south of the area 
for Friday and Saturday. This will bring an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity as the flow becomes southwesterly and 
moisture increases across the area. Temperatures will be slightly 
above average through the period. 

&&

.MARINE...Deep layer subtropical ridge axis will remain to our 
north the next several days. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Laura to 
the se will move wnw into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next 
week. Southeast winds will prevail the next several days over the
local waters. Long period swells and stronger winds will produce 
increased wave heights the next several days. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are possible mainly offshore by Monday as combined 
seas reach 6 to 8 feet. 

&&

 

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  71  86  72  89  74 /  20  60  30  70  20 
SSI  77  86  78  87  78 /  20  40  50  60  30 
JAX  75  88  75  89  76 /  20  60  50  60  20 
SGJ  76  87  76  89  76 /  20  50  50  70  20 
GNV  73  88  73  90  74 /  30  70  50  70  20 
OCF  74  89  74  91  74 /  40  70  40  70  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&