424 FXUS62 KJAX 221950 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 350 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020 .NEAR TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...Chance of isolated strong to severe storms will continue this evening through Sunday afternoon as strong vertical wind shear persists due to strong sw winds aloft. A moist and unstable airmass will remain in place with high rain chances continuing...more numerous in the afternoon/evening hours. Temperatures will be near average levels with southeasterly winds increasing on Sunday as high pressure builds to the north tightening the pressure gradient. .SHORT TERM [Sunday night through Tuesday Night]...Southeastly flow will prevail with low level ridge axis just north of the area. Mid-level ridge will build into the area from the east which will steer Tropical Storm Laura wnw into the Gulf fo Mexico. Vertical wind shear will decrease over the area as moisture remains high along with warming temperatures aloft. This will lower the severe potential to isolated pulse storms...with locally heavy rainfall threat remaining a threat. Showers and possibly thunderstorms will be scattered near the east coast in the morning hours...becoming more numerous inland during the afternoon/evening. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...Mid-level ridge axis will be across the area Wednesday and Thursday with surface ridge just to the north. This will bring warming and drying conditions aloft with a decrease in rain chances. A southeasterly steering flow will result in scattered convection mainly over inland areas with highest coverage over western zones by late afternoon/evening. The ridge at surface and aloft will shift to the south of the area for Friday and Saturday. This will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity as the flow becomes southwesterly and moisture increases across the area. Temperatures will be slightly above average through the period. && .MARINE...Deep layer subtropical ridge axis will remain to our north the next several days. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Laura to the se will move wnw into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Southeast winds will prevail the next several days over the local waters. Long period swells and stronger winds will produce increased wave heights the next several days. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible mainly offshore by Monday as combined seas reach 6 to 8 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 86 72 89 74 / 20 60 30 70 20 SSI 77 86 78 87 78 / 20 40 50 60 30 JAX 75 88 75 89 76 / 20 60 50 60 20 SGJ 76 87 76 89 76 / 20 50 50 70 20 GNV 73 88 73 90 74 / 30 70 50 70 20 OCF 74 89 74 91 74 / 40 70 40 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&