612 
FXUS63 KICT 050437
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1137 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 818 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Early this evening, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the 
Colorado Front Range, as well as across north-central Nebraska. East 
of that convection, a warm front stretches from southeast Colorado 
into northern Texas. North of that warm front, a mid-level 
baroclinic zone/instability gradient stretches north to south across 
Kansas. 

Through early Wednesday morning, it appears WAA will be focused 
near/just north of the warm front, which  may tend to keep Colorado 
convection focused west/southwest of our CWA as it attempts to 
push off the High Plains. At the same time, models suggest a 
modest mid- level jet will move through tonight. That combined 
with the baroclinic zone in place may prove sufficient for the 
development of a second are of showers/storms across parts of 
central/south-central Kansas. The GFS appears to be handling the 
elevated moisture the best, compared with 00z RAOBs, and suggests 
around 500-1000 j/kg MUCAPE overnight. Shear is modest (30-40kt), 
but the lack of better instability may tend to be a limiting 
factor for stronger, or marginally severe, storms. We'll continue 
to monitor the potential, but the better threat of a few severe 
storms may tend to stay west/southwest of central/south- central 
KS. That said, if a secondary area of storms can develop, some 
decent rainfall amounts cannot be ruled out given the increasing 
PWATs in place. 

Martin

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Current satellite imagery shows a band of mid-level clouds over 
central Nebraska extending southward into central Oklahoma. This is 
where a mid-level frontal zone resides which would become the focus 
for re-newed showers/storms for late tonight into Wednesday morning, 
and again for late Wednesday night Thursday morning. HREF model mean 
MUCAPE/850mb wind values shows a little stronger signal for 
Wednesday night/Thursday morning even with its QPF being higher for 
tonight compared to tomorrow night. A few strong to marginally 
severe storms are possible tonight with Wednesday night having a 
slight uptick on storm strength to occur.

Daytime highs will gradually warm for Thursday into Friday along 
with another round of elevated showers/storms late Thursday night 
into Friday morning affecting mainly eastern Kansas. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Models show warmer temperatures building over the region for this 
period along with light westerly upper level winds. This should lead 
to a mostly dry weather pattern and daytime highs being closer to 
seasonal values. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

* TSRA possible through WED AM (mainly south-central KS)

Recent radar and satellite trends suggest the greatest threat of 
TSRA has shifted a bit further south/west compared to earlier 
thinking. For now, I left VCTS in at KHUT/KICT, but held off on 
adding a TEMPO group (due to modest confidence). The 
moisture/instability axis (where TSRA are focused overnight) should 
shift east over the next 24 hrs, with the threat of TSRA gradually 
shifting east (just beyond the current TAF cycle). For now, thinking 
CIGs should be VFR, although where TSRA occur, CIGs could briefly 
fall into the MVFR category. VIS as low as 3/4SM is possible where 
TSRA develop.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: It still looks like more of central/south-central 
KS could be impacted by TSRA Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  81  65  87 /  40  20  40  40 
Hutchinson      61  80  64  85 /  30  10  40  30 
Newton          60  81  64  85 /  20  10  30  30 
ElDorado        59  80  64  84 /  20  20  30  30 
Winfield-KWLD   61  80  65  86 /  40  30  40  40 
Russell         61  81  64  85 /  20  10  30  10 
Great Bend      60  80  64  85 /  30  10  40  10 
Salina          61  81  65  85 /  10  10  20  20 
McPherson       60  80  64  84 /  20  10  30  30 
Coffeyville     58  81  64  86 /  10  10  30  40 
Chanute         57  81  64  84 /   0  10  20  30 
Iola            57  81  63  85 /   0  10  10  30 
Parsons-KPPF    58  81  64  85 /  10  10  20  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...RM
SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RM