612 FXUS63 KICT 050437 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1137 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 818 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Early this evening, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the Colorado Front Range, as well as across north-central Nebraska. East of that convection, a warm front stretches from southeast Colorado into northern Texas. North of that warm front, a mid-level baroclinic zone/instability gradient stretches north to south across Kansas. Through early Wednesday morning, it appears WAA will be focused near/just north of the warm front, which may tend to keep Colorado convection focused west/southwest of our CWA as it attempts to push off the High Plains. At the same time, models suggest a modest mid- level jet will move through tonight. That combined with the baroclinic zone in place may prove sufficient for the development of a second are of showers/storms across parts of central/south-central Kansas. The GFS appears to be handling the elevated moisture the best, compared with 00z RAOBs, and suggests around 500-1000 j/kg MUCAPE overnight. Shear is modest (30-40kt), but the lack of better instability may tend to be a limiting factor for stronger, or marginally severe, storms. We'll continue to monitor the potential, but the better threat of a few severe storms may tend to stay west/southwest of central/south- central KS. That said, if a secondary area of storms can develop, some decent rainfall amounts cannot be ruled out given the increasing PWATs in place. Martin && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Current satellite imagery shows a band of mid-level clouds over central Nebraska extending southward into central Oklahoma. This is where a mid-level frontal zone resides which would become the focus for re-newed showers/storms for late tonight into Wednesday morning, and again for late Wednesday night Thursday morning. HREF model mean MUCAPE/850mb wind values shows a little stronger signal for Wednesday night/Thursday morning even with its QPF being higher for tonight compared to tomorrow night. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible tonight with Wednesday night having a slight uptick on storm strength to occur. Daytime highs will gradually warm for Thursday into Friday along with another round of elevated showers/storms late Thursday night into Friday morning affecting mainly eastern Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 Models show warmer temperatures building over the region for this period along with light westerly upper level winds. This should lead to a mostly dry weather pattern and daytime highs being closer to seasonal values. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020 * TSRA possible through WED AM (mainly south-central KS) Recent radar and satellite trends suggest the greatest threat of TSRA has shifted a bit further south/west compared to earlier thinking. For now, I left VCTS in at KHUT/KICT, but held off on adding a TEMPO group (due to modest confidence). The moisture/instability axis (where TSRA are focused overnight) should shift east over the next 24 hrs, with the threat of TSRA gradually shifting east (just beyond the current TAF cycle). For now, thinking CIGs should be VFR, although where TSRA occur, CIGs could briefly fall into the MVFR category. VIS as low as 3/4SM is possible where TSRA develop. EXTENDED OUTLOOK: It still looks like more of central/south-central KS could be impacted by TSRA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 62 81 65 87 / 40 20 40 40 Hutchinson 61 80 64 85 / 30 10 40 30 Newton 60 81 64 85 / 20 10 30 30 ElDorado 59 80 64 84 / 20 20 30 30 Winfield-KWLD 61 80 65 86 / 40 30 40 40 Russell 61 81 64 85 / 20 10 30 10 Great Bend 60 80 64 85 / 30 10 40 10 Salina 61 81 65 85 / 10 10 20 20 McPherson 60 80 64 84 / 20 10 30 30 Coffeyville 58 81 64 86 / 10 10 30 40 Chanute 57 81 64 84 / 0 10 20 30 Iola 57 81 63 85 / 0 10 10 30 Parsons-KPPF 58 81 64 85 / 10 10 20 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ MESOSCALE...RM SHORT TERM...CDJ LONG TERM...CDJ AVIATION...RM