314 
FXUS62 KJAX 290027
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
827 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

Strong convection was fading this evening with prevailing WSW and
lingering low and mid level clouds. Expect prevailing VFR
conditions as precip continues to fade through 03z with SCT-BKN 
mid level clouds 8-10 kft lingering through the night with a low
chance of a passing shower through the night as an upper level
disturbance passes overhead. With prevailing WSW low level winds,
some low stratus may advect inland from the Gulf Coast region
toward GNV through 12z and VQQ/SGJ/JAX/CRG...but confidence too
low to include restrictions at this time. After daybreak, once
again convection will move from west to east with TS nearing GNV
and the coastal terminals by early afternoon with TEMPO groups
likely needed for the terminals after 16z Wed due to TS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [310 PM EDT]...



.Short Term.../through Friday/...

For the remainder of this afternoon into evening, surface high 
pressure ridge will be centered to the southeast, as a trough of 
low pressure extends across the southeastern US. A 500 mb high to 
the south will provide for a westerly flow aloft. The resultant 
surface flow will be from the southwest. Due to the pinching of 
the gradient between the trough and high, the flow is strong 
enough to keep the sea breeze pinned to near the coast. Convection
will continue to overspread from the southwest as the gulf coast 
sea breeze pushes inland. This area will meet the east coast sea 
breeze, where the strongest storms will be expected. These strong
storms will produce gusty winds, as well as heavy rainfall. With 
loss of day time heating, storms will dissipate this evening, with
dry weather forecast for Tonight. 

The trough over the southeastern US breaks down Tonight, while high 
pressure remains to the southeast on Wednesday. The high at 500mb 
remains just to the south with westerly flow aloft. The southwest
flow at the surface will continue, with convection initiating 
inland on the gulf coast sea breeze late in the morning, then 
spreading northeast through the afternoon. The east coast sea 
breeze should make it to around the I95 corridor or a little 
further west. This I95 corridor will then be the focus for the 
strongest storms in the afternoon, where best potential for gusty 
winds and heavy rainfall will be expected. Activity will diminish 
during the evening.

High pressure will stretch across the FL peninsula from a center to 
the east southeast on Thursday, as another trough develops across 
the southeastern US. Again the 500mb high will be to the south 
yielding westerly flow aloft over the region. Once again with the
pressure gradient between the high and the trough, the southwest 
flow should be strong enough to keep the sea breeze pinned to near
the coast. Expect convection to begin over interior counties late
morning, then spread east northeast through the afternoon. 
Activity will meet the east coast sea breeze later in the 
afternoon, where the strongest storms will be expected. Storms 
will decrease in coverage and intensity during the evening hours.

High pressure ridge will stretch across FL from center to the east 
southeast Friday, with weak trough over the southeastern US. Upper 
high will be more to the southwest, yielding more of a northwest 
component to the flow aloft. Expect convection to develop inland 
late in the morning and progress east across forecast area 
through the afternoon. Sea breeze will once again remain near the 
coast, so convection may be strongest along the coast late in the 
afternoon. With loss of diurnal heating, activity will diminish in
the evening.

Temperatures this period will trend above normal.


.Long Term.../Friday night through Tuesday/...

Weather during this period will be dependent on track of potential 
tropical system. At this time will forecast scattered convection,
and will refine in future forecast cycles once track and strength
of potential system can be determined.

Temperatures expected to trend above normal this period.


.Marine...

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east southeast through
Friday. The weekend forecast will depend on the track of potential 
tropical system. 

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low Risk Wednesday
              NE FL: Low Risk Wednesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  92  73  91  74 /  20  60  20  50   0 
SSI  74  91  78  92  78 /  20  60  20  60  10 
JAX  72  92  74  95  75 /  20  60  10  60  10 
SGJ  73  92  74  92  75 /  70  60  10  60  10 
GNV  72  91  73  92  73 /  30  60  10  40   0 
OCF  72  91  74  92  74 /  30  60  10  30   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&