314 FXUS62 KJAX 290027 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 827 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Thursday] Strong convection was fading this evening with prevailing WSW and lingering low and mid level clouds. Expect prevailing VFR conditions as precip continues to fade through 03z with SCT-BKN mid level clouds 8-10 kft lingering through the night with a low chance of a passing shower through the night as an upper level disturbance passes overhead. With prevailing WSW low level winds, some low stratus may advect inland from the Gulf Coast region toward GNV through 12z and VQQ/SGJ/JAX/CRG...but confidence too low to include restrictions at this time. After daybreak, once again convection will move from west to east with TS nearing GNV and the coastal terminals by early afternoon with TEMPO groups likely needed for the terminals after 16z Wed due to TS. && .PREV DISCUSSION [310 PM EDT]... .Short Term.../through Friday/... For the remainder of this afternoon into evening, surface high pressure ridge will be centered to the southeast, as a trough of low pressure extends across the southeastern US. A 500 mb high to the south will provide for a westerly flow aloft. The resultant surface flow will be from the southwest. Due to the pinching of the gradient between the trough and high, the flow is strong enough to keep the sea breeze pinned to near the coast. Convection will continue to overspread from the southwest as the gulf coast sea breeze pushes inland. This area will meet the east coast sea breeze, where the strongest storms will be expected. These strong storms will produce gusty winds, as well as heavy rainfall. With loss of day time heating, storms will dissipate this evening, with dry weather forecast for Tonight. The trough over the southeastern US breaks down Tonight, while high pressure remains to the southeast on Wednesday. The high at 500mb remains just to the south with westerly flow aloft. The southwest flow at the surface will continue, with convection initiating inland on the gulf coast sea breeze late in the morning, then spreading northeast through the afternoon. The east coast sea breeze should make it to around the I95 corridor or a little further west. This I95 corridor will then be the focus for the strongest storms in the afternoon, where best potential for gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be expected. Activity will diminish during the evening. High pressure will stretch across the FL peninsula from a center to the east southeast on Thursday, as another trough develops across the southeastern US. Again the 500mb high will be to the south yielding westerly flow aloft over the region. Once again with the pressure gradient between the high and the trough, the southwest flow should be strong enough to keep the sea breeze pinned to near the coast. Expect convection to begin over interior counties late morning, then spread east northeast through the afternoon. Activity will meet the east coast sea breeze later in the afternoon, where the strongest storms will be expected. Storms will decrease in coverage and intensity during the evening hours. High pressure ridge will stretch across FL from center to the east southeast Friday, with weak trough over the southeastern US. Upper high will be more to the southwest, yielding more of a northwest component to the flow aloft. Expect convection to develop inland late in the morning and progress east across forecast area through the afternoon. Sea breeze will once again remain near the coast, so convection may be strongest along the coast late in the afternoon. With loss of diurnal heating, activity will diminish in the evening. Temperatures this period will trend above normal. .Long Term.../Friday night through Tuesday/... Weather during this period will be dependent on track of potential tropical system. At this time will forecast scattered convection, and will refine in future forecast cycles once track and strength of potential system can be determined. Temperatures expected to trend above normal this period. .Marine... Surface high pressure will be centered to the east southeast through Friday. The weekend forecast will depend on the track of potential tropical system. Rip Currents: SE GA: Low Risk Wednesday NE FL: Low Risk Wednesday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 92 73 91 74 / 20 60 20 50 0 SSI 74 91 78 92 78 / 20 60 20 60 10 JAX 72 92 74 95 75 / 20 60 10 60 10 SGJ 73 92 74 92 75 / 70 60 10 60 10 GNV 72 91 73 92 73 / 30 60 10 40 0 OCF 72 91 74 92 74 / 30 60 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&