847 
FXUS64 KMOB 282338 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
638 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...High coverage of showers with some embedded storms
will gradually lessen in coverage through mid evening, but remain
mainly along the coastal areas through the overnight hours.
Redevelopment of showers and some storms are expected late 
tonight into the early Wednesday morning hours mainly near the 
coast which then develop quickly inland through noon. MVFR 
conditions will accompany the stronger showers and storms and 
MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible late tonight through Wednesday
afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. South to 
Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots diminish tonight then a southwest 
flow of 5 to 10 knots returns on Wednesday. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...A large and broad
upper trof over the interior eastern states is weakly connected 
with a modest upper trof which extends across Mississippi/Alabama/
Louisiana into the far western Gulf. This tenuous connection 
breaks down as the weak upper trof continues slowly westward into 
Texas tonight allowing for an upper ridge over the eastern Gulf 
and part of the extreme southeast states to expand into the 
central Gulf. The upper ridge continues to slowly expand a bit 
further west into the northwestern Gulf on Wednesday while a broad
upper trof remains over the interior eastern states. A surface 
ridge remains in place from the east central Gulf to the western 
Gulf, and this pattern overall maintains a moist deep layer 
southwest flow over the forecast area with precipitable water 
values of 2.1-2.3 inches. MLCAPE values will be generally around 
1000 J/kg today with similar values on Wednesday while shear 
remains very low. As a series of weak shortwaves move across the 
area within this rather moist environment, expect high coverage of
showers and embedded storms to develop each day, first near the 
coast then spreading/developing further inland through the day. 
Some nuisance type flooding issues will be possible given the slow
movement of the convection and efficient rain production. Have 
updated for the rest of today to raise afternoon highs by around 2
degrees in several locations with other minor adjustments. Lows 
tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at 
the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s. A 
moderate risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday. /29

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...The short term 
features a much needed, yet short lasting, break from the 
unsettled weather. An upper level ridge builds westward from the 
Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and spills into much of the 
Southeast through the remainder of the work week. While the ridge 
will control our weather locally, a shortwave trough aloft darts 
south through the Central Plains during this timeframe and will be
the focus of some the weather in the extended time frame. 
Nevertheless, as the ridge builds south of the local area, winds 
aloft turn mostly zonal through Friday night. Down near the 
surface, the western Atlantic ridge continues to spill into the 
eastern Gulf on Thursday and eventually pushes deeper into the 
Gulf by Friday. As such, surface winds begin to take on more of a 
westerly component as we head into Friday. The deep plume of 
moisture across the area will slowly begin to exit the region on 
Thursday, although PWATs around 2 inches are slow to exit the areas
east of I-65 on Thursday. By Friday, PWATs nose dive into the 
1.2-1.5 inch range across much of the area, especially across 
southeast Mississippi. The POPs were trimmed back from the blends 
given the drier air filtering into the area. Expect thunderstorm 
coverage to be scattered across south central Alabama and 
northwest Florida on Thursday afternoon with only isolated 
coverage across south central Alabama on Friday afternoon. POPs 
were capped at around 15% across southeast Mississippi both 
afternoons.

Temperatures will be on the increase on Thursday and Friday as the 
cloud cover and rain coverage becomes less of an issue. Daytime 
highs soar into the low 90s on Thursday with a few mid 90s sprinkled 
into the forecast by Friday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will 
bottom out in the low 70s inland with upper 70s to near 80° at the 
beaches.

MODERATE risk of rip currents will persist through the short term. 
07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...As we roll into the 
weekend, the upper level ridge has less of an influence on the local 
forecast as the aforementioned shortwave trough slides into the Mid 
South and Midwest. This feature eventually joins up with a broader 
trough aloft that ends up encompassing much of the eastern half of 
the CONUS late this weekend into early next week. This leaves the 
area in another prolonged period of southwesterly flow aloft. 
Meanwhile, a surface low quickly develops in response to the 
shortwave this weekend over the Mid South and races off to the 
northeast with weak high pressure generally prevailing across the 
Gulf waters. A cold front associated with this low will slowly 
attempt to progress to the southeast over the weekend, but high 
pressure over the Gulf will likely stall or wash out the front well 
to the north of our local area. 

Dry air will linger across the eastern portion on Saturday afternoon 
with PWATs increasing to nearly 2 inches again on Sunday. Trimmed 
back the POPs on Saturday afternoon for areas south and east of I-
65. Outside of that POP adjustment, generally expecting scattered 
showers and storms Sunday through early next week. Could see a few 
strong to possibly severe storms on Saturday afternoon and Sunday
afternoon, but not anticipating widespread severe weather. 
Looking further to the south, all eyes remain on the tropics 
during this same time frame. The National Hurricane Center is now 
issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 as it heads 
west-northwest over the next several days. PTC #9 may approach the
Florida peninsula late in the weekend. NOTE: Since the system is 
still in the formative stage today, there is a greater than 
average uncertainty that exists regarding both the track and 
intensity forecasts.

Temperatures will rise into the mid to low 90s each day in the 
extended. Overnight lows change very little, as is typical this time 
of year, with mid to low 70s expected for inland communities and 
upper 70s to near 80° along the immediate coast. 07/mb

MARINE...No marine impacts expected other than locally higher winds 
and waves/seas near the stronger storms that 
develop. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob