847 FXUS64 KMOB 282338 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...High coverage of showers with some embedded storms will gradually lessen in coverage through mid evening, but remain mainly along the coastal areas through the overnight hours. Redevelopment of showers and some storms are expected late tonight into the early Wednesday morning hours mainly near the coast which then develop quickly inland through noon. MVFR conditions will accompany the stronger showers and storms and MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible late tonight through Wednesday afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. South to Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots diminish tonight then a southwest flow of 5 to 10 knots returns on Wednesday. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2020/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...A large and broad upper trof over the interior eastern states is weakly connected with a modest upper trof which extends across Mississippi/Alabama/ Louisiana into the far western Gulf. This tenuous connection breaks down as the weak upper trof continues slowly westward into Texas tonight allowing for an upper ridge over the eastern Gulf and part of the extreme southeast states to expand into the central Gulf. The upper ridge continues to slowly expand a bit further west into the northwestern Gulf on Wednesday while a broad upper trof remains over the interior eastern states. A surface ridge remains in place from the east central Gulf to the western Gulf, and this pattern overall maintains a moist deep layer southwest flow over the forecast area with precipitable water values of 2.1-2.3 inches. MLCAPE values will be generally around 1000 J/kg today with similar values on Wednesday while shear remains very low. As a series of weak shortwaves move across the area within this rather moist environment, expect high coverage of showers and embedded storms to develop each day, first near the coast then spreading/developing further inland through the day. Some nuisance type flooding issues will be possible given the slow movement of the convection and efficient rain production. Have updated for the rest of today to raise afternoon highs by around 2 degrees in several locations with other minor adjustments. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday. /29 SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...The short term features a much needed, yet short lasting, break from the unsettled weather. An upper level ridge builds westward from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and spills into much of the Southeast through the remainder of the work week. While the ridge will control our weather locally, a shortwave trough aloft darts south through the Central Plains during this timeframe and will be the focus of some the weather in the extended time frame. Nevertheless, as the ridge builds south of the local area, winds aloft turn mostly zonal through Friday night. Down near the surface, the western Atlantic ridge continues to spill into the eastern Gulf on Thursday and eventually pushes deeper into the Gulf by Friday. As such, surface winds begin to take on more of a westerly component as we head into Friday. The deep plume of moisture across the area will slowly begin to exit the region on Thursday, although PWATs around 2 inches are slow to exit the areas east of I-65 on Thursday. By Friday, PWATs nose dive into the 1.2-1.5 inch range across much of the area, especially across southeast Mississippi. The POPs were trimmed back from the blends given the drier air filtering into the area. Expect thunderstorm coverage to be scattered across south central Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday afternoon with only isolated coverage across south central Alabama on Friday afternoon. POPs were capped at around 15% across southeast Mississippi both afternoons. Temperatures will be on the increase on Thursday and Friday as the cloud cover and rain coverage becomes less of an issue. Daytime highs soar into the low 90s on Thursday with a few mid 90s sprinkled into the forecast by Friday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the low 70s inland with upper 70s to near 80° at the beaches. MODERATE risk of rip currents will persist through the short term. 07/mb EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...As we roll into the weekend, the upper level ridge has less of an influence on the local forecast as the aforementioned shortwave trough slides into the Mid South and Midwest. This feature eventually joins up with a broader trough aloft that ends up encompassing much of the eastern half of the CONUS late this weekend into early next week. This leaves the area in another prolonged period of southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a surface low quickly develops in response to the shortwave this weekend over the Mid South and races off to the northeast with weak high pressure generally prevailing across the Gulf waters. A cold front associated with this low will slowly attempt to progress to the southeast over the weekend, but high pressure over the Gulf will likely stall or wash out the front well to the north of our local area. Dry air will linger across the eastern portion on Saturday afternoon with PWATs increasing to nearly 2 inches again on Sunday. Trimmed back the POPs on Saturday afternoon for areas south and east of I- 65. Outside of that POP adjustment, generally expecting scattered showers and storms Sunday through early next week. Could see a few strong to possibly severe storms on Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon, but not anticipating widespread severe weather. Looking further to the south, all eyes remain on the tropics during this same time frame. The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 as it heads west-northwest over the next several days. PTC #9 may approach the Florida peninsula late in the weekend. NOTE: Since the system is still in the formative stage today, there is a greater than average uncertainty that exists regarding both the track and intensity forecasts. Temperatures will rise into the mid to low 90s each day in the extended. Overnight lows change very little, as is typical this time of year, with mid to low 70s expected for inland communities and upper 70s to near 80° along the immediate coast. 07/mb MARINE...No marine impacts expected other than locally higher winds and waves/seas near the stronger storms that develop. /29 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob