585 
FXUS64 KMOB 201856
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
156 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A deep layer ridge of high 
pressure continues to extend from the western Atlantic through 
the Tennessee Valley and adjacent southeastern states this
afternoon. A light southeasterly flow continues across our region
with this pattern. Seasonably hot and humid conditions persist 
with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s over interior portions 
of the region and in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees near the 
coast. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s are resulting in heat 
indices in the 101 to 106 degree range over most places. Radar so 
far shows very little in the way of convective development across 
our area as of 1 PM CDT, but with precipitable water values 
between 1.7 and 1.9 inches and a weak impulse rounding the area on
the periphery of the ridge axis, we anticipate isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop later this afternoon and into this 
evening, especially over interior portions of the CWA. The hot 
temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s continue to promote pockets 
of MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/KG, so there is potential 
for a storm or two to produce very localized strong downburst 
winds, in addition to frequent lightning and locally heavy 
rainfall this afternoon into early this evening. Convection should
diminish by late this evening and will maintain a dry forecast 
after midnight. 

A similar weather pattern will continue across the region on
Tuesday. The deep layer ridge will continue to nose west-
southwest from the western Atlantic/eastern seaboard through
AL/MS. This pattern will continue to support the typical heat and
humidity, with highs once again forecast to range in the lower to
mid 90s over our interior areas and around 90 degrees near the
immediate coast and beaches. Max heat indices are forecast to
range between 102-107 degrees over much of the area. Isolated
showers/storms should be mostly confined to the marine area early
Tuesday morning, and perhaps also dotting portions of interior
southwest/south central AL, but more scattered coverage should
develop again by Tuesday afternoon, particularly over interior 
areas. Instability should remain strong enough (2000-3000 J/KG)
for there to be concern for locally strong wind gusts and frequent
lightning with the stronger storm cells that develop Tuesday. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR forecast to prevail across the region through
the next 24 hours outside of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA that
develop this afternoon and evening. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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