585 FXUS64 KMOB 201856 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 156 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...A deep layer ridge of high pressure continues to extend from the western Atlantic through the Tennessee Valley and adjacent southeastern states this afternoon. A light southeasterly flow continues across our region with this pattern. Seasonably hot and humid conditions persist with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s over interior portions of the region and in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees near the coast. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s are resulting in heat indices in the 101 to 106 degree range over most places. Radar so far shows very little in the way of convective development across our area as of 1 PM CDT, but with precipitable water values between 1.7 and 1.9 inches and a weak impulse rounding the area on the periphery of the ridge axis, we anticipate isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop later this afternoon and into this evening, especially over interior portions of the CWA. The hot temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s continue to promote pockets of MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/KG, so there is potential for a storm or two to produce very localized strong downburst winds, in addition to frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall this afternoon into early this evening. Convection should diminish by late this evening and will maintain a dry forecast after midnight. A similar weather pattern will continue across the region on Tuesday. The deep layer ridge will continue to nose west- southwest from the western Atlantic/eastern seaboard through AL/MS. This pattern will continue to support the typical heat and humidity, with highs once again forecast to range in the lower to mid 90s over our interior areas and around 90 degrees near the immediate coast and beaches. Max heat indices are forecast to range between 102-107 degrees over much of the area. Isolated showers/storms should be mostly confined to the marine area early Tuesday morning, and perhaps also dotting portions of interior southwest/south central AL, but more scattered coverage should develop again by Tuesday afternoon, particularly over interior areas. Instability should remain strong enough (2000-3000 J/KG) for there to be concern for locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with the stronger storm cells that develop Tuesday. /21 && .AVIATION... 18Z issuance...VFR forecast to prevail across the region through the next 24 hours outside of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA that develop this afternoon and evening. /21 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob