419 
FXUS61 KCLE 201033
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
633 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will reside across the Ohio Valley 
through Tuesday. The stationary front will lift north as a warm 
front on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Another cold front 
will move southeast across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Drier air mass has arrived across much of the area this morning
with PWATs now closer to about 1 inch. By around noon, this
drier mid-level boundary level air will mix down to the surface
and decrease dew points to the lower 60s, making for a more
comfortable day. Highs expected to reach the mid to upper 80s.

Previous Discussion...
Quiescent weather in the near term with near zero precipitation 
chances and fair weather. Monday will feature a dry airmass with 
some passing mid-level clouds and less humid weather. Expecting high 
temperatures to exceed guidance by a couple degrees with daytime 
mixing. High temperatures will range in the mid to upper 80s with 
lows in the mid 60s.

By Tuesday, a stationary front will remain tethered across southern 
Ohio, keeping the area mostly dry throughout the day as humidity 
slowly creeps into the area by the evening hours in anticipation of 
northward lifting warm front. Because of the slower northward 
progression of this warm front, have mostly eliminated PoP chances 
from 2 to 8 PM Tuesday with increasing chances for showers and 
thunderstorms after 8 PM. SPC tends to agree with the slower 
progression of the warm front along with decreasing instability with 
eliminating the marginal risk of severe storms for much of the area. 
A lake breeze will develop during the afternoon on Tuesday, mainly 
along the lakeshore from Cleveland up towards Erie, PA. Some cu 
could develop along this boundary and wouldn't be surprised to see 
an isolated shower or two. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in 
the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will shift east Tuesday night allowing a warm 
front to lift north. The return flow will usher in dewpoints in the 
lower 70s and the next appreciable chance for rain. Aloft another 
shortwave trough will move over the Great lakes region. This feature 
and the associated surface low will trek through the upper lakes on 
Wednesday. This will lead to widespread cloudiness and rain chances. 
Looking at shear around 30kt possible during the afternoon along 
with around 2,000 j/kg CAPE and plenty of moisture. Will need to 
monitor for timing of the shortwave and potential for strong to 
severe storms along and ahead of the cold front. For Thursday 
ridging will build into the area with surface high pressure centered 
over the upper lakes. Though dynamics and moisture will be limited, 
can't rule out some diurnally driven pop up showers and storms later 
in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain chances will decrease as we end the week with a building ridge 
from the east. The mid level ridge will remain dominant over the 
area on Friday with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Most of 
the area will remain dry as PWATs drop to an inch, but with NW flow 
aloft can't rule out isolated showers during peak heating. By 
Saturday another shortwave trough moves from the northern plains in 
to the Great Lakes region. The trailing cold front with this feature 
will move across the local area Sunday, though uncertainty on the 
timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mostly VFR across the TAF sites this morning with the occasional
bounce from sct to MVFR bkn ceilings. Expect predominately VFR
in the next couple of hours and VFR to prevail through the end
of the TAF period. 

Prevailing west/southwesterly flow across the TAF sites this
morning, 5 to 10 knots. Expect this flow regime to continue
throughout the TAF period. Some higher gusts near 20 knots could
be possible at ERI later this afternoon.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR possible with scattered showers 
and thunderstorms on Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds will persist today and then switch around to the 
northeast tonight as surface high pressure builds to the north. A 
warm front will lift north of the lake Tuesday night/early Wednesday 
with increasing showers and thunderstorms. A shortwave trough 
trekking to the north while its associated cold front will pass over 
the area Wednesday evening. High pressure will build over the area 
on Thursday through Saturday. Though an active period winds are 
projected to remain below 20 knots throughout.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Jamison
LONG TERM...Jamison
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Jamison