419 FXUS61 KCLE 201033 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 633 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will reside across the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. The stationary front will lift north as a warm front on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Another cold front will move southeast across the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Drier air mass has arrived across much of the area this morning with PWATs now closer to about 1 inch. By around noon, this drier mid-level boundary level air will mix down to the surface and decrease dew points to the lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day. Highs expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. Previous Discussion... Quiescent weather in the near term with near zero precipitation chances and fair weather. Monday will feature a dry airmass with some passing mid-level clouds and less humid weather. Expecting high temperatures to exceed guidance by a couple degrees with daytime mixing. High temperatures will range in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid 60s. By Tuesday, a stationary front will remain tethered across southern Ohio, keeping the area mostly dry throughout the day as humidity slowly creeps into the area by the evening hours in anticipation of northward lifting warm front. Because of the slower northward progression of this warm front, have mostly eliminated PoP chances from 2 to 8 PM Tuesday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms after 8 PM. SPC tends to agree with the slower progression of the warm front along with decreasing instability with eliminating the marginal risk of severe storms for much of the area. A lake breeze will develop during the afternoon on Tuesday, mainly along the lakeshore from Cleveland up towards Erie, PA. Some cu could develop along this boundary and wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated shower or two. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will shift east Tuesday night allowing a warm front to lift north. The return flow will usher in dewpoints in the lower 70s and the next appreciable chance for rain. Aloft another shortwave trough will move over the Great lakes region. This feature and the associated surface low will trek through the upper lakes on Wednesday. This will lead to widespread cloudiness and rain chances. Looking at shear around 30kt possible during the afternoon along with around 2,000 j/kg CAPE and plenty of moisture. Will need to monitor for timing of the shortwave and potential for strong to severe storms along and ahead of the cold front. For Thursday ridging will build into the area with surface high pressure centered over the upper lakes. Though dynamics and moisture will be limited, can't rule out some diurnally driven pop up showers and storms later in the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain chances will decrease as we end the week with a building ridge from the east. The mid level ridge will remain dominant over the area on Friday with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Most of the area will remain dry as PWATs drop to an inch, but with NW flow aloft can't rule out isolated showers during peak heating. By Saturday another shortwave trough moves from the northern plains in to the Great Lakes region. The trailing cold front with this feature will move across the local area Sunday, though uncertainty on the timing. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Mostly VFR across the TAF sites this morning with the occasional bounce from sct to MVFR bkn ceilings. Expect predominately VFR in the next couple of hours and VFR to prevail through the end of the TAF period. Prevailing west/southwesterly flow across the TAF sites this morning, 5 to 10 knots. Expect this flow regime to continue throughout the TAF period. Some higher gusts near 20 knots could be possible at ERI later this afternoon. Outlook...Occasional non-VFR possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Westerly winds will persist today and then switch around to the northeast tonight as surface high pressure builds to the north. A warm front will lift north of the lake Tuesday night/early Wednesday with increasing showers and thunderstorms. A shortwave trough trekking to the north while its associated cold front will pass over the area Wednesday evening. High pressure will build over the area on Thursday through Saturday. Though an active period winds are projected to remain below 20 knots throughout. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Jamison LONG TERM...Jamison AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Jamison